Orange County residents overwhelmingly agree on one thing. Buying a home is harder now than it was for previous generations.
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And when you ask them about the “American dream,” it’s a coin toss: about 45% of respondents say it’s still achievable, while an equal amount say it no longer is, according to findings from a new UC Irvine poll released Friday, Aug. 7.
But the difficulty of buying a home or achieving the American dream — which the poll called “the belief that hard work can provide the opportunity to build a better life” — is not the only thing people agree on, said Gould, nor is it a new issue: Concerns about the cost of living have been on people’s minds for years.
“Almost eight out of 10 people say it is harder to raise a family today, and we have seven out of 10 people saying it is harder to get a good job,” said Jon Gould, the poll’s director and dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology.
“If you look at our polling over the last three years, this has been consistent from the get-go.”
But what exactly the American dream is depends on who you ask. Usually, the poll found, it depends on age.
Home buying is just harder
Nine out of 10 Orange County residents agree that buying a home is more difficult now than it was for their parents, according to the UCI poll, which surveyed more than 800 adults in the county over four days in June.
This agreement crosses both generational and party lines: 94% of Republicans, 95% of Democrats and 91% of independent voters — those who are registered under a third party or no party preference — believe it’s more difficult to buy a home now than it was for previous generations, according to the poll.
Generationally, 89% of millennials, 94% of Gen Z, 95% of Gen X and 96% of boomers or Silent Generation polled believe this, too.
Gould said while there are aspects of today’s world that make life more difficult than, say, eight months ago — rising gas prices, for example — the difficulty people have faced finding housing they can afford has been a consistent worry since the university began its UCI-OC poll four years ago.
“What people are telling us is that life has been difficult to afford here in Orange County,” Gould said. “That’s why people are worried about their ability to achieve the American dream.”
What is the American dream? It depends on who you ask
The poll’s findings show, Gould said, that while residents haven’t given up on the American dream itself, they question whether Orange County can still be the place where those ideals manifest.
“Does this mean the American dream is no longer possible? I think the answer is that the American dream is still alive, but for several people, it’s on life support,” he said.
UCI asked Orange County residents to paint how exactly the American dream looks to them.
About 28% of respondents said it is financial security and stability; Millennials and Gen X residents most often defined the American dream this way.
22% described it as either owning a home and raising a family. Those of the baby boomer generation most often defined it this way, according to the poll.
And 22% of respondents defined the American dream as having freedom and personal independence. Gen Z residents are more likely than any other age group to define it this way.
“These generational differences tell us something important,” Gould said. “Younger residents may be redefining the dream precisely because the traditional version — the house, the family, the stable career — feels out of reach.”
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Is that dream still achievable?
The survey suggests that those who are religious, already homeowners or making at least $100,000 annually are more optimistic than those who aren’t religious, are renting or are making under $50,000 a year.
Ultimately, younger poll respondents were more pessimistic about achieving the American dream than older generations.
Just 39% of Gen Z respondents say the American dream is still achievable, while 42% of them believe it was once possible but is no longer. 15% of respondents of this generation believe it was never actually achievable, according to the poll.
45% of survey respondents from the baby boomer or Silent Generation believe the American dream is still achievable, although 51% believe it was once possible but no longer. Just 1% of respondents from these generations say it was never possible.
These splits came as a surprise, Gould said.
As to why: It’s either because younger people feel more cynical about what the future holds for them, or because older generations can see the road ahead for their kids and grandchildren.
“If you’re here, and you’re younger, potentially you are more optimistic about being able to (achieve the American dream), because why else are you here? Whereas boomers made it, and they’re looking back and thinking, ‘Oh my god, if this were me trying to start out, it would be difficult,’” Gould said.
No matter their generation or political preference, respondents overall said it’s more difficult to reach major life milestones than it was for previous generations: 70% said it’s harder to get a good job than it was before, while 79% believe that it’s harder now to raise a family than it was in the past.
Major decisions, OC’s future
Similar to the cynicism around buying a home, poll respondents said that other major life milestones — such as raising a family or getting a good job — are harder to achieve now than they were for previous generations.
The poll found 79% of residents said raising a family is more difficult now than before, while just 16% said it’s just as difficult. Only 2% said it’s easier today than it was before.
And 70% said it’s more challenging now to get a good job. One-fifth of respondents said it’s just as difficult, while just 6% said it’s easier now than in the past.
People are delaying or scaling back at least one of these major life decisions largely due to the cost of living, according to the poll: 22% of respondents said they are delaying or scaling back one, while 35% of respondents said they are putting off more than one major life decision because of the cost of living.
Overall, Orange County residents are not optimistic about the region’s future: 45% said the county’s best years are behind it, while just 32% said its best years are on the way.
But when asked what advice they’d give to a young adult, over half said they’d encourage them to build a future here.
Gould said this shows people are worried about Orange County’s future. But they haven’t given up on a future here, either.
“Orange County residents really like living here,” Gould said.
“So when you ask me, why is it people would tell folks to think about making a future here, even if they think the county’s best days are behind them? It may be that even if the best days were in the past, the present isn’t so bad,” he said.
UCI surveyed 467 registered voters in Orange County through text message and another 342 online from June 9 to June 12. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.
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