The more affordable the neighborhood, the better the odds its homes will sell quickly.
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My trusty spreadsheet reviewed a year’s worth of sales and pricing data for the 71 Orange County ZIP codes with the most transactions in the 12 months ending in April, according to Attom. The goal was to track homebuying momentum in order to find “hot” housing neighborhoods and those that were not. There were 13 ZIPs that did not make the cut.
Yet another real estate pattern emerged.
The grading was simple. Each ZIP code was ranked by its one-year percentage change in median price and sales counts, a tally that included houses and condos, both existing and newly built. Those two rankings were averaged to create a final grade for the 71 communities.
Now, before we get to what you really want to know – like “Who won?” or “Who lost?” or “How’d my ZIP do?” – we did get an important economic lesson out of what’s essentially bragging-rights calculations.
First, note that the median price across all of Orange County was $1.2 million. Those hoping for discounts were largely disappointed, as prices rose 2% over the previous 12 months. Of the 71 ZIPs, prices rose in only 41.
The lofty prices scared off numerous house hunters as sales rose just 1% in the year to 25,247. Of the 71 ZIPs, sales rose in just 41.
And historically speaking, that’s a sluggish purchasing pace, running 25% below the average dating to 2005.
The lesson
Now, focus on the extremes of these ZIP-by-ZIP rankings.
Pricing in the 10 hottest neighborhoods ran $1.1 million, up 5% over the past year. Sales jumped 17% compared with the previous 12 months.
At the bottom of the rankings, prices in Orange County’s 11 coldest ZIP codes – with a tie for 10th chilliest – ran $1.4 million, down 4% in a year. Sales fell 9%.
The lesson lies in the 27% price gap between hot and cold. This is the bargain hunter’s market.
At least in this timeframe, buyers shied away from costlier communities. Wannabe sellers should note that with affordability nearly non-existent, lower prices won.
The top 10
OK, the economic lecture is complete. Let’s get to the awards ceremony for a winning group that’s decidedly a North County flock, geographically speaking.
Garden Grove’s 92843 ZIP code was the hottest neighborhood housing market of the past year through April.
Its $942,000 median sales price was up 6% in a year, the 11th-largest gain. Sales over the past 12 months were up 32% from the previous year, the largest increase in Orange County.
Then came …
– No. 2 Orange 92865: $1.1 million median – up 4% in a year, No. 20 gain. Sales up 28% in a year, No. 3 increase.
– No. 3 Fullerton 92832: $900,000 median – up 4% in a year, No. 21 gain. Sales up 19% in a year, No. 5 increase.
– No. 3 Tustin 92780: $1.1 million median – up 7% in a year, No. 10 gain. Sales are up 10% in a year, No. 16 increase.
– No. 3 Fullerton 92835: $1.3 million median – up 5% in a year, No. 15. Sales up 12% in a year, No. 11 increase.
– No. 6 Santa Ana 92706: $1.1 million median – up 9% in a year, fifth-biggest gain. Sales up 7% in a year, No. 23 increase.
– No. 7 Garden Grove 92845: $1.1 million median – up 3% in a year, No. 28 gain Sales up 31% in a year, second-best increase.
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– No. 8 Santa Ana 92707: $768,000 median – up 9% in a year, No. 6 gain. Sales, up 6% in a year, No. 27 increase.
– No. 9 Seal Beach 90740: $1.5 million median – up 4% in a year, No. 22 gain. Sales up 11% in a year, No. 13 increase.
– No. 10 Westminster 92683: $1.1 million median – up 3% in a year, No. 31 gain. Sales up 15% in a year, sixth-best increase.
The bottom 11
This group is pricier and more geographically diverse, with four ZIP codes in Irvine.
Some of these neighborhoods look sluggish because new home construction has slowed. Take Irvine’s 92602, the coldest ZIP code in the county by these numbers.
This northern patch of the city posted a $2.4 million median price, down 9% in a year and the third-weakest showing. Sales tumbled 27%, the biggest drop of all.
The rest of the bottom 11:
– No. 70 Irvine 92618: $1.6 million median – off 12% in a year, the county’s weakest. Sales off 7%, No. 11 worst.
– No. 69 Irvine 92614: $1.1 million median – off 8% in a year, fourth-weakest. Sales off 5%, No. 14 worst.
– No. 67 Aliso Viejo 92656: $898,000 median – off 2% in a year, No. 16 weakest. Sales are down 8% in a year, No. 10 worst.
– No. 67 San Clemente 92673: $1.7 million median – off 1% in a year, No. 22 weakest. Sales off 19%, fourth-worst.
– No. 66 Laguna Hills 92653: $1.2 million median – off 8% in a year, fifth-weakest. Sales off 2%, No. 24 worst.
– No. 65 Buena Park 90621: $867,000 median – up 0.4% in a year, No. 29 weakest. Sales off 20%, third-worst.
– No. 63 Anaheim 92807: $1.1 million median – off 2% in a year, No. 15 weakest. Sales off 3%, No. 19 worst.
– No. 63 Yorba Linda 92887: $1.4 million median – off 3% in a year, No. 13 weakest. Sales off 3%, No. 21 worst.
– No. 61 Orange 92869: $1.1 million median – flat in a year, No. 25 weakest. Sales off 5%, No. 15 worst.
– No. 61 Irvine 92603: $2.3 million median – off 4% in a year, No. 9 weakest. Sales, up 1%, No. 31 worst.
How’d your ZIP do? Go to tinyurl.com/hot-cold-oc. There’s the table below, or CLICK HERE!
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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