Here is a reminder, and maybe this applies more to those who live elsewhere and love to take potshots at Southern California and its sports fans: There are 18 major league and power conference college teams (football and men’s and women’s basketball) in this market, representing the 18.3 million residents of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties.
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And as we’ve noted here often, standards are high in the most diverse sports market on the planet. You want to fill more seats? Win more games. Compete for championships. If you don’t, don’t complain. Fans here have every reason to vote with their wallets.
We traditionally take a broader view in our annual State of SoCal Sports rankings, which traditionally run a week or so after the Super Bowl. Those take into account not only competitive success but popularity and interest within the market and the stability of a team’s ownership and organization, among other factors.
Today, with one team gunning for a championship three-peat and another an odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl – on its own turf, no less – we’re narrowing the focus: What are the competitive expectations of SoCal’s 18 teams for winning a championship, on a 1-100 scale?
(This doesn’t mean a division title or a mere postseason berth, by the way. This is about winning the whole thing. The teams at the top shouldn’t be a surprise. If you have a gripe about how the teams in the middle are ranked, the email address is at the bottom and I’m sure I’ll be hearing from you.)
Here, then, is the Southern California Expectation Index:
Rams (95 out of 100): One of this column’s competitors went all-in and predicted an undefeated season. If that were to happen – and if it doesn’t, it’s his jinx and not mine – the survivors of the 1972 Dolphins will have nothing to celebrate, as they customarily do when the last undefeated NFL team loses each season. (Maybe they’ll toast Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula, who is the grandson of the late Don Shula, coach of those 17-0 Dolphins.)
Dodgers (90): Perhaps it’s best to just shrug off the month of August. They’re in the soft part of the schedule now and can create some momentum, they’re jockeying with Milwaukee for best record and with Atlanta to stay out of the wild-card round, and they’re playing for history. Pick against them at your peril.
UCLA women’s basketball (70): Technically they’re the defending national champions. Realistically, six of the players who achieved that are now playing in the WNBA. But Cori Close’s team has reloaded, and while back-to-back seems like it will be a heavy lift, these Bruins should still be tremendously fun to watch.
USC women’s basketball (70): Four words: JuJu Watkins is back. The Women of Troy may share a city with the defending champs, but this will again be a fair fight.
Chargers (65): Justin Herbert is in danger of the same fate as former Charger Philip Rivers, as a gifted quarterback who won’t be truly appreciated nationally if he doesn’t get to a Super Bowl. This could be his best chance to change that narrative, and maybe new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel will turn out to be the missing piece.
LAFC (65): The last time the Los Angeles Football Club hired a new coach, Steve Cherundolo won the Supporters’ Shield and MLS Cup in his first season. Could his successor, Marc Dos Santos, do the same?
UCLA football (65): One game may not prove anything … but the Bruins’ performance at Cal in Bob Chesney’s debut as head coach gave UCLA’s fans not only permission to believe but good reason to do so.
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Lakers (65): This is now indisputably Luka Doncic’s team, and the roster has undergone an extensive makeover around Doncic and Austin Reaves. But is it enough to get past the second round for the first time since 2023?
Ducks (55): A strong season and playoff run under Joel Quenneville suggested good times ahead, but Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek botched it in the offseason, having to match a huge offer sheet to Leo Carlsson while Cutter Gauthier is still unsigned. Anaheim put veteran Chris Kreider on waivers Wednesday morning, the first step toward contract termination to create some cap room. Assume another move or two is coming.
UCLA men’s basketball (50): Two of the Bruins’ five double-figure scorers from last season’s Round of 32 team, Skyy Clark and Donovan Dent, are now LSU Tigers, and don’t think NIL money didn’t make a difference. UCLA’s newcomers include 17-year-old Serbian freshman Nikola Kusturica, one of four Europeans joining the roster and a potential No. 1 NBA draft pick. But a reminder: When Mick Cronin gets upset, there is no language barrier.
USC football (50): The Trojans have done as expected in their first two games, save for a lousy fourth quarter by the guys at the bottom of the depth chart against San José State. As for those crowds – especially for the opener, which had all of social media weighing in? The weather was a factor then, and Friday rush-hour traffic didn’t help for a 6 p.m. start against Fresno State. But this quite possibly is SC fans’ response to the Lincoln Riley era.
Kings (50): While their archrivals in Orange County are young and promising, Kings general manager Ken Holland stocked new coach Peter Laviolette’s first L.A. roster with every 35-plus guy he could get his hands on. Will these guys have any legs left come April?
Galaxy (50): The six-time MLS champs are trying to pull off the improbable, getting back to the playoffs after revamping their roster via the midseason transfer window. Going into Wednesday night’s match at Vancouver, they are one point out of a playoff spot with 10 to play.
Angel City FC (40): This team is also hoping for a late-season push, two points out of a playoff spot with eight to play. But in their four previous seasons of existence they’ve made the postseason once – and exited quickly – and have had six coaches, including interims, in five seasons. This was not what those people who had campaigned for an NWSL team in L.A. had expected.
USC men’s basketball (30): Eric Musselman got his team above .500 last season, 18-14 after a 17-18 first year. But the Trojans were 7-13 in the Big Ten, and it is now three seasons since they’ve reached the NCAA Tournament. I don’t think anyone’s pining for the good old days of Andy Enfield, but it seems like the Muss Bus needs to get rolling quickly.
Clippers (20): Last week’s cap circumvention penalties resulting from the Kawhi Leonard affair will have more of an effect on future Clippers teams, thanks to the five stripped first-round draft choices, but it might not be pretty this season either. Last season’s team went out in the Play-in Tournament, and for this one to even get close, coach Ty Lue is going to have to perform some magic.
Sparks (0, eliminated): Another rebuild is underway, with another new general manager – Ariana Andonian, a USC graduate with a decade’s worth of basketball operations experience in the NBA and G-League. Given that this club is about to miss the playoffs for the sixth straight season, assume that there will be more housecleaning to come.
Angels (0, eliminated): When you’ve hit bottom, there’s nowhere to go but up. And odds are that after 12 non-playoff seasons, Angels fans will see an ascent once Stan Kroenke takes over next spring. The question: Who will be the manager and the general manager in 2027?
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