SERIES SCHEDULE
(All times are PT)
Game 1 – Dodgers at Brewers, Sunday, 5 p.m., FOX (Ch. 11)
Game 2 – Dodgers at Brewers, Monday, 2 p.m., FOX (Ch. 11)
Game 3 – Brewers at Dodgers, Wednesday, 5 p.m., FS1
Game 4 – Brewers at Dodgers, Thursday, 6 p.m., FS1
x-Game 5 – Brewers at Dodgers, Friday, 6 p.m., FS1
x-Game 6 – Dodgers at Brewers, Sunday, Oct. 18, 5 p.m., FS1
x-Game 7 – Dodgers at Brewers, Monday, Oct. 19, 5 p.m., FOX (Ch. 11)
x – If necessary
Season series: The Brewers won, 4-3.
TALE OF THE TAPE (OFFENSE)
Brewers (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
103-59 (1st in NL Central) … Record … 100-62 (1st in NL West)
832 (2nd) … Runs scored … 801 (4th)
.258 (1st) … Batting avg. … .257 (2nd)
.341 (1st) … OBP … .338 (3rd)
.403 (7th) … Slugging pct. … .424 (2nd)
.744 (3rd) … OPS … .762 (2nd)
154 (15th) … Home runs … 204 (T-4th)
162 (4th) … Stolen bases … 72 (15th)
TALE OF THE TAPE (PITCHING)
Brewers (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
3.51 (1st) … Team ERA … 3.55 (2nd)
3.61 (2nd) … Starters ERA … 3.43 (1st)
3.40 (1st) … Bullpen ERA … 3.74 (4th)
1.18 (2nd) … WHIP … 1.14 (1st)
9.61 (2nd) … Ks per 9 inns. … 9.53 (3rd)
PROJECTED LINEUPS
BREWERS: LF Jackson Chourio (.291/.351/.487, 25 HRs, 75 RBIs, 23 SBs), 2B Brice Turang (.268/.366/.450, 21 HRs, 100 RBIs, 19 SBs), C William Contreras (.270/.341/.417, 18 HRs, 94 RBIs), 1B Jake Bauers (.266/.389/.484, 26 HRs, 86 RBIs, 11 SBs), DH Christian Yelich (.235/.315/.378, 12 HRs, 59 RBIs, 11 SBs), SS Cooper Pratt (.281/.350/.368, 3 HRs, 34 RBIs, 19 SBs, 74 games), RF Luis Lara (.246/.311/.325, 1 HR, 26 RBIs, 61 games), CF Garrett Mitchell (.262/.354/.416, 11 HRs, 65 RBIs, 14 SBs), 3B Joey Ortiz (.270/.328/.402, 9 HRs, 47 RBIs)
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DODGERS: SS Mookie Betts (.257/.326/.454, 23 HRs, 69 RBIs), 1B Freddie Freeman (.288/.362/.430, 16 HRs, 70 RBIs), C Will Smith (.260/.355/.426, 10 HRs, 34 RBIs, 73 games), DH Shohei Ohtani (.275/.377/.512, 30 HRs, 81 RBIs, 11 SBs), LF Teoscar Hernandez (.267/.334/.425, 16 HRs, 64 RBIs), RF Kyle Tucker (.233/.330/.385, 17 HRs, 70 RBIs, 12 SBs), 3B Max Muncy (.252/.348/.490, 29 HRs, 76 RBIs), CF Andy Pages (.274/.343/.468, 23 HRs, 85 RBIs, 13 SBs), 2B Tommy Edman (.247/.329/.385, 8 HRs, 42 RBIs)
The Brewers scored 832 runs during the regular season, the Dodgers 801. The Dodgers scored 14 in their four Division Series games, the Brewers 13 in theirs.
But the two teams go about it very differently.
The Brewers led the majors in batting average and on-base percentage during the regular season and got even better with runners in scoring position (.276, also highest in MLB). But they hit just 154 home runs – the fewest in MLB. The profile is an opportunistic team that pressures the opponent, gets on base, moves guys along and gets them home.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, hit 204 home runs during the regular season and eight more (the most in the postseason so far) to produce 12 of their 14 runs against the Braves. They were second in the majors in slugging percentage during the regular season (the Brewers were 11th).
Home runs become even more valuable in the postseason. Stringing together hits to create a run-scoring rally is more difficult against good pitching. You need to take advantage of the few mistakes pitchers make at this time of year by sending them over the fence – as the Dodgers did against the Braves. They have proven postseason power brokers throughout their lineup – Max Muncy (franchise-record 19 career postseason homers, including three in the NLDS), Freddie Freeman (18 including, two in the first round), Kiké Hernandez (17) and Teoscar Hernandez (nine in 37 postseason games with the Dodgers).
The Dodgers’ power advantage would get even bigger if Shohei Ohtani awakens. The slumping Ohtani has not hit a home run since Aug. 18 (98 plate appearances ago) and has just one extra-base hit in his past 66 plate appearances. EDGE: DODGERS
STARTING PITCHERS
BREWERS: RH Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 Ks, 13.0 Ks per 9 IP), RH Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.1 Ks per 9 IP), RH Dustin May (7-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.9 Ks per 9 IP with Cardinals and Brewers), LH Robert Gasser (5-5, 3.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.5 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: LH Tarik Skubal (12-7, 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP with Tigers and Dodgers), RH Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-9, 2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 8.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Blake Snell (4-1, 1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 3.53 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.9 Ks per 9 IP)
The Dodgers would have an advantage in starting pitching against any team they could possibly match up against in the postseason, but that advantage is slimmer against the Brewers.
Presumptive Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski is a daunting matchup, and the Dodgers could face him twice in a best-of-seven series. Can they “grind” him out of the game as they did to Chris Sale in NLDS Game 3? Rookie right-hander Logan Henderson gives the Brewers an impressive duo of young guns. But their rotation drops off considerably after that – though Dustin May could summon one of his flashes of dominance in a matchup with his former teammates.
The Dodgers’ foursome of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani allowed just two runs in 28⅔ innings, while the Dodgers’ staff as a whole held the Brewers to a .118 average in last fall’s four-game NLCS sweep. Substitute two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal for Ohtani, and the Dodgers will have the advantage every night The Miz doesn’t start. Misiorowski was questionable to make last year’s NLCS roster due to workload and health concerns. The Brewers will have him for two starts if needed this year. But the Dodgers can get four starts from Skubal and Yamamoto in an extended series. EDGE: DODGERS
PROJECTED BULLPEN
BREWERS: RH Trevor Megill (3-3, 30 saves, 3 blown saves, 2.63 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10.1 Ks per 9 IP), LH Kyle Harrison (11-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.0 Ks per 9 IP, 24 starts), RH Grant Anderson (3-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.9 Ks per 9 IP), RH Abner Uribe (6-3, 6 saves, 1.97 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.4 Ks per 9 IP), LH DL Hall (4-0, 1.91 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 Ks per 9 IP), LH Aaron Ashby (13-3, 4 saves, 3.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 11.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Chad Patrick (9-4, 6 saves, 3.40 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.9 Ks per 9 IP), RH Antonio Senzatela (2-3, 5.14 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.0 Ks per 9 IP), LH Shane Drohan (7-5, 2 saves, 4.19 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.0 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: LH Tanner Scott (1-6, 25 saves, 4 blown saves, 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 11.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.49 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.0 Ks per 9 IP, 23 games started), RH Evan Phillips (3-2, 1 save, 3.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 Ks per 9 IP), LH Alex Vesia (3-1, 3 saves, 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 11.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Edwin Diaz (2-2, 7 saves, 4 blown saves, 8.68 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 13.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Edgardo Henriquez (4-1, 2 saves, 2.85 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.7 Ks per 9 IP), LH Jack Dreyer (5-2, 2 saves, 3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Brock Stewart (1-2, 1 save, 2.70 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.4 Ks per 9 IP)
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The Brewers had the best bullpen in baseball during the regular season, posting a 3.40 ERA while throwing the sixth-most innings in MLB. In their NLDS against the Padres, relievers got all three wins for the Brewers and allowed just one earned run in 19 innings.
It’s a deep corps of relievers that Manager Pat Murphy can draw upon. Seven different relievers had at least two saves during the regular season, topped by closer Trevor Megill who converted 30 of 33 opportunities. Abner Uribe gives Murphy a dynamic fireman to deploy whenever things get hot. And they should have plenty of left-handed options to play the matchup game against the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters (Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy and Kyle Tucker).
But the Dodgers’ bullpen could be transformed by Edwin Diaz’s late arrival. If Diaz is truly back to top form, it affords Dave Roberts the flexibility to match up with Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Edgardo Henriquez, Evan Phillips and wild card Roki Sasaki whenever the situation calls for it. EDGE: BREWERS
BENCH
BREWERS: IF/OF Sal Frelick (.230/.295/.319, 4 HRs, 40 RBIs), 1B/3B Andrew Vaughn (.306/.390/.444, 6 HRs, 43 RBIs), C Gary Sanchez (.209/.349/.422, 12 HRs, 38 RBIs), 3B David Hamilton (.245/.314/.336, 4 HRs, 26 RBIs, 30 SBs)
DODGERS: IF Miguel Rojas (.267/.312/.391, 4 HRs, 23 RBIs, 6 SBs), C Hunter Feduccia (.221/.312/.313, 3 HRs, 19 RBIs with Rays and Dodgers), IF/OF Kiké Hernandez (.222/.271/.400, 4 HRs, 12 RBIs), OF Josue De Paula (.323/.500/.581, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 11 games)
In keeping with their small-town, travel-ball team aesthetic, the Brewers have some interchangeable parts and aren’t afraid to use them. Andrew Vaughn or David Hamilton could find their way into the starting lineup based on matchups and Gary Sanchez is a potential power bat off the bench.
Kiké Hernandez has already shown what he can do in October. But Miguel Rojas is uncertain after injuring his back in Game 3 of the NLDS. If they have to replace him, Alex Freeland could be the choice unless they see more usefulness in the right-handed Alex Call. EDGE: BREWERS
MANAGERS
BREWERS: Pat Murphy, third season with Brewers (293-193, .603), fourth season overall (335-247, .576 with Padres and Brewers), third postseason (7-9, .438)
DODGERS: Dave Roberts, 11th season (1,044-637, .621), 11th postseason (72-49, .595)
Pat Murphy’s ability to keep getting more out of his roster than the experts expect has him on the verge of his own ‘three-peat’ – he is expected to win his third consecutive NL Manager of the Year award this winter. Murphy and his pocket pancakes (or whatever he’s packing in there these days) provides a big personality to the small-market Brewers.
Roberts’ job is very different. He is annually given the most talented roster in the majors – and everybody knows it. Meeting the expectations that come with that – and managing the egos of a star-studded clubhouse – is a bigger challenge. Under Roberts, the Dodgers have annually been in position to achieve those lofty goals. In his 11 seasons, they have made the postseason every year, won the division 10 times, reached the NLCS eight times, the World Series five times and are eight wins away from the first ‘three-peat’ by a National League team.
Murphy keeps winning Manager of the Year awards. Roberts just keeps winning championships. EDGE: DODGERS
SERIES PREDICTION
Forget the $200 million-plus difference in payroll – this is not David vs. Goliath This is two evenly-matched 100-win teams, the best in the National League (and probably MLB). It is only the seventh time in LCS history (starting in 1969) that two 100-win teams met with a World Series berth on the line – the first since 2019 (Astros-Yankees) and only the second in National League history (Reds-Phillies in 1976). As different as their markets, philosophies and, yes, payrolls are, these are two very similar teams. They both finished in the top three in the NL in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. Their pitching is even more similar, finishing 1-2 (or 2-1) in the NL in team ERA, starters’ ERA, WHIP, and batting average against. This Brewers team is significantly better than the one the Dodgers swept in last year’s NLCS with young stars in Misiorowski and Chourio. And these Brewers are much more comfortable on this stage than last year, when their five-game Division Series victory over the Chicago Cubs left them emotionally flat in the NLCS. But the Dodgers’ postseason experience and depth are clear advantages in this matchup. The Dodgers know how to “win the big moments” and their roster is loaded with players who have been there and done that. PREDICTION: DODGERS IN SIX
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