Take a guess what these numbers represent: 2, 2, 2, 1, 0, 3, 3.
No, those aren’t the Dodgers’ run totals in recent playoff games. They’re California horses’ win totals at the Breeders’ Cup in the past seven years, from among 14 races each time. They represent a decline from the previous seven years, which the numbers read this way: 2, 5, 3, 3, 6, 3, 5.
Read more Former Galaxy forward Gyasi Zardes ready for life after soccer
I asked Southern California public handicappers how horses based here will do against the beasts from the East, Europe and Japan in the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky., on Oct. 30 and 31. They said a fair over/under line on wins would be 1½; one said he would take the over, and another said he’d take the under and hope he’s wrong. They thought the best chances lie with Bob Baffert-trained Hughes in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Miss Monica in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Cynics might dismiss California horses’ chances in an era when the thoroughbred balance of power has shifted toward states where tracks are allowed to boost race purses with casino revenue.
But remember that even though California horses haven’t been winning as often at recent Breeders’ Cups, when they have won they’ve often done it at attractive odds, including 15-1 Citizen Bull, 13-1 Full Serrano and 6-1 Straight No Chaser in 2024 and 8-1 Super Corredora in 2025.
How much respect to give to horses who qualified for the 43rd Breeders’ Cup with victories against thinner competition at Santa Anita and Del Mar is one of the big questions for bettors in the next week. Pre-entries were announced on Wednesday. Lineups will be set on Monday.
Here are more questions and some answers:
Who can repeat?
Twelve past Breeders’ Cup winners are pre-entered this year, including eight in races they’ve already proven they can win. Whether they’re true contenders depends on whether their form is as sharp as it was when they won before.
At least four go to Keeneland off recent performances that say they’re as good as they are: Forever Young in the Classic, Splendora in the Filly & Mare Sprint or the Distaff, Ethical Diamond in the Turf and Notable Speech in the Mile.
Class or form?
The thinking above also applies to horses who might draw a lot of betting money based on reputations built on non-Breeders’ Cup major wins rather than current form.
Worthy of examination are Breeders’ Cup Classic pre-entries Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, and Magnitude, the Dubai World Cup and Stephen Foster Stakes winner. Golden Tempo needs to improve on his third-place finish behind 10-1 upsetter Leading Change in the Travers. Magnitude has to turn things around after finishing sixth at 9-5 behind Sovereignty in the Whitney.
Foreign intrigue
American handicappers always start Breeders’ Cup week wondering how strong the Irish, British and French – and now Japanese – contingents are, and we always conclude the answer is: very. The 79 foreign-based horses pre-entered this year are the second-most ever.
Based on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s helpful world rankings, the best European horse coming to Keeneland is Blue Bolt, a four-time Group 1-winning filly pre-entered against males in the Mile and in the Filly & Mare Turf. The best not coming is Daryz, the two-time Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner. His glow rubs off on Arc runner-up Bay City Roller, in the Turf, and third-place Diamond Necklace, a filly pre-entered in the Turf and Filly & Mare Turf.
Read more Christian Yelich’s World Series message for title-less Brewers: Expect to be here
Weather or not
These might not be reliably dry California conditions. As of Thursday, AccuWeather saw a solid chance of rain on Sunday – the day after the Breeders’ Cup – but the forecast has been changing and could change again.
European horses’ past performances are full of examples of their work on “soft” and “yielding” turf. Three foreign contenders in the 2-year-old races Friday already have excelled in off going: Favorite Sun Goddess and Amusingly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Folsom Blues in the Juvenile Turf.
Horses for courses
Weather aside, the Keeneland footing could help some horses. Further Ado, pre-entered in the Classic and Dirt Mile, is an obvious case after runaway wins in both starts at Keeneland. Others to consider: Nakatomi (Sprint), Evanescence (Filly & Mare Sprint), Expensive Queen (Filly & Mare Turf) and Time to Dazzle (Turf Sprint).
In three previous Breeders’ Cups at Keeneland, front-runners won four of 21 main-track races. That’s a low percentage compared to five for 14 at Del Mar the past two years.
People to watch
Which jockeys’ and trainers’ horses deserve automatic respect? The riders’ picture changed Thursday when Irad Ortiz Jr., second to Mike Smith in all-time Breeders’ Cup wins, broke an ankle in a race at Keeneland; he’ll be replaced on several contenders next week. Flavien Prat and England-based Ryan Moore and William Buick are the other frequent Breeders’ Cup winners lately. Among trainers, Bob Baffert and Ireland’s Aidan O’Brien are tied for the most Cup wins, while England-based Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has been the most frequent winner in the past five years.
Price shopping
Which Breeders’ Cup races produce longshots? The Turf Sprint, Filly & Mare Turf and Juvenile have had more winners paying 10-1 or better than winning favorites over the years. So cast a wider net in handicapping those.
Which races are the most formful? The Distaff stands out, with only one winner paying 10-1 or more and eight prompt favorites dating to Zenyatta in 2008. So heavy favorite Nitrogen is going to be hard to beat.
How to bet
It’s more like how to reduce your betting options to a useful few. The Breeders’ Cup hasn’t introduced any new kinds of wagers this year, so it still offers a long menu of 12 different kinds of wagers, ranging from simple win bets up to big-money pick-sixes.
Before the frenzy of the racing day begins, a serious player will have made decisions about which horses he or she is considering and which kinds of bets can take best advantage.
Friday’s 10-race card at Keeneland – with five Breeders’ Cup stakes – begins at 8:55 a.m. PDT. Saturday’s 12 races – nine Breeders’ Cup events – start at 8:15 a.m.
Read more World Series: Brewers-Rays matchup to open with Misiorowski’s record heat
One week might be just about enough to answer all the questions.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.