Just before critical elections, consumer confidence rebounded from noteworthy lows in California and nationally, but even after October’s pop, optimism remained subpar.
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My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence indexes, which use polls to measure how shoppers view their finances and the broader economy.
Consumer confidence not only drives spending patterns, but it can also hint at what voters might do. Remember, voters on Tuesday will decide the fate of everything from who’s California’s next governor to which party controls Congress.
The October stats show California’s consumer confidence index rose 15% from September’s revised level. But September was the lowest level of optimism since the pandemic-throttled economy of December 2020.
Plus, the optimism yardstick is 29% below October 2024, just before Donald Trump won a second term in the White House. It’s also 10% below its average since 2007.
The anxieties could stem from California’s globally-oriented economy being a poor fit for Trump’s “America First” agenda. State leadership is also up for grabs on Election Day.
Plus, hiring is running far below its historic pace, statewide and nationally. And inflation, especially in gasoline prices, is pummeling many household budgets.
California worries
Look inside California’s index to see what drives the Golden State skittishness.
The present situation index, which measures consumer impressions of current conditions, rose 17% in a month but is now 24% below October 2024’s level.
Still, it’s only 1% below average, a sign Californians are sort of OK with their recent financial picture.
Next, consider the expectations index, which tracks the Californian view of the economic future.
Yes, it rose 14% in a month. But it remains 34% below October 2024 and 18% below average – signaling serious uncertainty.
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Nationally speaking
Americans overall are worried.
The nation’s consumer confidence index rose 9% in a month, but that jump is from September’s bottom – a 12-year low. Optimism is still 16% below October 2024 and 4% below a 20-year average.
Americans seem relatively fine with today’s economy. The nation’s present situation index rose 8% in a month to 12% below October 2024 yet it’s 10% above the 20-year average.
But like Californians, the outlook is cloudy. The U.S. expectations index was up 11% in a month but remains 21% below October 2024 and 16% below average.
Stately status
Six of the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board have seen consumer confidence fall over two years since the last national elections, despite October’s results.
Look at the swings, ranked by confidence changes since October 2024:
– Michigan: Off 4% in a month to 22% below October 2024 and flat with the 20-year average.
– Ohio: Up 1% in a month to 20% below October 2024 and 3% below average.
– Pennsylvania: Off 6% in a month to 15% below October 2024 and 3% above average.
– Texas: Up 10% in a month from a 14-year low to 14% below October 2024 and 14% below average.
– New York: Up 4% in a month to 14% below October 2024 but 16% above average.
– Illinois: Up 8% in a month to 12% below October 2024 but 10% above average.
– Florida: Up 32% in a month from a five-year low to 6% above October 2024 and 8% above average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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