{"id":10034,"date":"2026-05-28T12:02:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T12:02:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=10034"},"modified":"2026-05-28T12:02:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T12:02:19","slug":"think-its-hot-now-the-next-five-years-will-smash-records-un-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=10034","title":{"rendered":"Think it\u2019s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong>By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 In the next five years, the Earth is overwhelmingly likely to surge again and again past the international climate threshold set as safe and shatter its hottest-year record along the way, according to new United Nations climate projections.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=10032\">US military says Iran fired missiles at Kuwait in the latest challenge to the fragile ceasefire<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The World Meteorological Organization also forecasts an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit between now and 2030 and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon, a crucial part of Earth\u2019s natural defenses to lessen human-caused climate change. A hotter globe from the burning of coal, oil and gas means more extreme weather including floods, droughts and heat waves, scientists said.<\/p>\n<p>The projections by the U.N. climate agency and the United Kingdom\u2019s Meteorological Office said there\u2019s a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. That\u00a0threshold is the agreed-upon limit of warming\u00a0\u2014 averaged over 20 years \u2014 set in 2015 by the Paris climate agreement.<\/p>\n<p>A U.N. science report a few years later detailed how exceeding that 1.5 mark means more likely\u00a0death, danger and species loss. Even though it\u2019s only a few tenths of a degree, some of the planet\u2019s ecosystems, such as coral and glaciers, can\u2019t handle the strain.<\/p>\n<p><span><iframe allowfullscreen=\"true\" class=\"youtube-player\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/G0-6wdm-L3A?version=3&amp;rel=1&amp;showsearch=0&amp;showinfo=1&amp;iv_load_policy=1&amp;fs=1&amp;hl=en-US&amp;autohide=2&amp;wmode=transparent\" style=\"border:0;\" width=\"640\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Passing warming limit has consequences, but no cliff<\/h4>\n<p>There\u2019s a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will shoot past the 1.5 degree threshold and an 86% chance that one of those years will smash the record for Earth\u2019s hottest year set in 2024, the WMO report said. The WMO projects each year between now and 2030 to be between 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit and 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 1800s.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s important to note that (1.5) is not kind of a cliff edge that we\u2019re going to fall off,\u201d said report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the U.K. Meteorological Office. \u201cEvery kind of 0.1 of a degree has more and more severe impact.\u201d<\/p>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<p>She pointed to unprecedented May heat in Europe this week.<\/p>\n<p>An entire year or more above the 1.5 degree mark \u201cmeans a whole range of extreme weather events, probably many so hot\/wet\/dry that it exceeds anything we\u2019ve experienced in the past and thus crucially, anything our city planning, agriculture etc. has anticipated,\u201d Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto, who wasn\u2019t part of the report, said in an email. \u201cThis will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Nearly all the shorter-term forecasts call for a strong El Nino \u2014 a natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide and spikes global temperatures \u2014 to form soon. The WMO report said it could stretch all the way to 2028. Because of that, Seabrook said 2027 will likely break the 2024 heat record.<\/p>\n<p>And if the next five years do average more than 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, that means Earth will have warmed a quarter of a degree Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) in a decade, which is faster than the previous rates of warming. Those were closer to two-tenths of a degree Celsius per decade.<\/p>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Climate scientists are debating whether global warming is accelerating, \u201cwhich obviously is quite scary,\u201d and if these projections come true it would give additional evidence to those who see a speeded up rate of change, Seabrook said.<\/p>\n<h4>Accelerating warmth forecast in the Arctic<\/h4>\n<p>The projections, based on the averaging of about 200 runs of computer simulations using 13 different climate models from various countries, show warming in the Arctic rising 3.5 times faster than the rest of the globe, because there\u2019s less ice and snow that had been reflecting solar radiation to space, Seabrook said. It becomes a vicious cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=10030\">Israeli strikes kill at least 14 across southern Lebanon ahead of Washington talks<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs the temperature warms, more sea ice melts, the worse this makes it,\u201d Seabrook said.<\/p>\n<p>Winters in the Arctic from 2020 to 2025 on average were 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 1991-2020 average. The WMO projects the next five winters will average 5.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than that recent normal, Seabrook said.<\/p>\n<p>The report also forecasts Arctic sea ice to continue to shrink in the summer.<\/p>\n<h4>Amazon may get drier, sparking fire worries<\/h4>\n<p>The report calls for even warmer and unusually dry conditions in the Amazon basin, and that could be devastating for both local residents and the planet as a whole, Seabrook said.<\/p>\n<p>People rely on the Amazon for water and the hotter, drier conditions should increase wildfire risk, Seabrook said, threatening to turn the Amazon, which now sucks heat-trapping carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, into a region that worsens the problem.<\/p>\n<p>Africa\u2019s Sahel area, which has been extra dry, is likely to get more than normal rain and that could lead to flooding, Seabrook said.<\/p>\n<p>United Nations officials said efforts to curb climate change haven\u2019t been enough.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDespite the progress of recent years, it\u2019s clear that global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it, and the baking temperatures in Europe, India and elsewhere show yet again the brutal human and economic impacts of humanity still burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas,\u201d U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said about the WMO report.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhether it\u2019s extreme heat, mega-storms, floods, massive wildfires or droughts hitting food supply and prices,\u201d he said, \u201cevery nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>The Associated Press\u2019 climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP\u2019s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=10024\">Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers\u2019 bullpen combine for near no-hitter in victory over Rockies<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A report from the United Nations weather agency said it&#8217;s likely one of the next five years will smash the global heat record set in 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-based-on-facts","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Think it\u2019s hot now? 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