{"id":12744,"date":"2026-06-05T23:01:54","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T23:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=12744"},"modified":"2026-06-05T23:01:54","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T23:01:54","slug":"ebola-outbreak-in-central-africa-could-reach-20000-cases-without-strong-public-health-measures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=12744","title":{"rendered":"Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could reach 20,000 cases without strong public health measures"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

By MIKE STOBBE<\/strong><\/p>\n

NEW YORK (AP) \u2014 The Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could grow to 20,000 cases or more, depending on how quickly infected people are isolated to slow the spread, according to a new analysis by U.S. health officials.<\/p>\n

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a range of scenarios generated by computer models Friday, spanning from 10,000 cases to more than 20,000. If accurate, a worst-case scenario could approach the worst Ebola outbreak in history, the West Africa epidemic in 2014-2016 \u2014 which resulted in more than 28,000 reported cases and more than 11,000 deaths.<\/p>\n

\u201cWithout strong public health interventions, the modeling work suggests an outbreak of that scale is possible,\u201d said Dr. Satish Pillai, incident manager for the CDC\u2019s Ebola response, in a briefing with reporters.<\/p>\n

Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University\u2019s Pandemic Center, said the modeling \u201caffirms what we have worried about since the beginning: This outbreak is following dangerous trajectory\u201d if more is not done to stop the spread of Ebola.<\/p>\n

But she cautioned it can be extremely difficult to predict how outbreaks will progress. \u201cI wouldn\u2019t read too much into the specific numbers. It\u2019s really hard to make an accurate projection when you have limited data,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that there have been about 400 confirmed cases, including 63 deaths. Experts say there likely others that haven\u2019t been diagnosed or reported.<\/p>\n

Viruses that cause Ebola disease spread through contact with bodily fluids such as vomit, blood and semen. There are no specific treatments or vaccines for the Bundibugyo virus at the heart of the current outbreak. The disease is often fatal.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health emergency in May. Some experts believe infections may have been occurring in February, but health officials initially tested for a different kind of Ebola virus.<\/p>\n

The outbreak response has been complicated by an armed conflict between Congo\u2019s government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, as well as attacks by the Islamic State-affiliated group the Allied Democratic Force. The violence has caused massive displacement of people living in the conflict areas, officials say.<\/p>\n

Earlier this week, Nuzzo said the risk to the United States seems low. \u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s a scenario that it\u2019s going to come here and spread broadly,\u201d she told reporters. The CDC echoed that assessment in an article released Friday.<\/p>\n

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That\u2019s due in part to decisions but the U.S. government to ban the entry of people without U.S. passports, as well as U.S. green-card holders who visited Congo, Uganda or South Sudan in the previous 21 days. Also, people with U.S. passports who traveled to those countries are undergoing health screenings and being funneled into four receiving airports.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

CDC\u2019s modeling report attempts to project how things might play out, depending on different factors \u2014 including how many infections and deaths have already happened, and how successful responders are in quickly identifying and isolating infected people before they can spread the infection to others.<\/p>\n

Assuming around 50 people had died and about 20% of infected persons were successfully isolated by late May, most simulations suggest at least 20,000 cases and 4,000 deaths will occur in Africa over three months.<\/p>\n

Pillai said the actual isolation rate is unknown but is considered to be \u201con the lower end of the scenarios\u201d that CDC modeled.<\/p>\n

Higher isolation rates, of 50% or 70%, could result in the number of cases being more like 10,000, CDC officials said. But if the actual number of deaths were greater in late May that currently recognized, that could make the outcomes worse, CDC officials said.<\/p>\n

Some CDC modeling during the large Ebola outbreak in West Africa proved to be way off. The CDC issued modeled numbers in 2014, when the epidemic was spiraling out of control and international health officials were quickly trying to build a response.<\/p>\n

The CDC estimated that in a worse-case scenario where nothing was done, as many as 1.4 million people might become infected. That turned out to be more than 50 times higher than what happened.<\/p>\n

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute\u2019s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Experts say there likely cases that haven\u2019t been diagnosed or reported.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-news"],"yoast_head":"\nEbola outbreak in Central Africa could reach 20,000 cases without strong public health measures - Silicon Valley Moving Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=12744\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could reach 20,000 cases without strong public health measures - 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