{"id":14084,"date":"2026-06-11T13:32:29","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=14084"},"modified":"2026-06-11T13:32:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:32:29","slug":"el-nino-is-here-and-scientists-fear-itll-be-big-bad-and-costly-with-heat-floods-droughts-fires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=14084","title":{"rendered":"El Nino is here and scientists fear it\u2019ll be big, bad and costly with heat, floods, droughts, fires"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><p><strong>By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 El Nino, nature\u2019s chaotic climate agent, has formed in a warmed-up Pacific Ocean and is expected to grow to historic strength, meteorologists announced Thursday.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=14079\">Irvine opens the door to ranked-choice voting in Orange County, but voters would make final decision<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Experts said the El Nino, a natural warming cycle, should further heat a globe already warming from fossil fuel pollution and will likely turbocharge extreme weather across the planet. Meteorologists forecast it will rival \u2014 or exceed \u2014 a record El Nino that began in 1997 and helped trigger billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially confirmed the existence of the El Nino, which is a warming of the Pacific near the equator that affects weather patterns across the globe. NOAA\u2019s announcement said there\u2019s a 63% chance that the El Nino will get so intense this late fall and early winter that it \u201cwould rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The warm, deep waters of an El Nino affect weather patterns by bringing \u201ca lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world,\u201d said Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier.<\/p>\n<p>She said, especially in the Pacific, \u201cit can get dire very quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres described El Nino as an \u201curgent climate warning.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEl Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,\u201d Guterres said in a video message.<\/p> <div>\n<\/div>\n<div><ul><div><div><li><div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A person uses a fan during a heat advisory in Brooklyn.\" class=\"wp-image-14081\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1b11192066c06210d95ac730302bc00f-1024x683.webp\" width=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1b11192066c06210d95ac730302bc00f-1024x683.webp 1024w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1b11192066c06210d95ac730302bc00f-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1b11192066c06210d95ac730302bc00f-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1b11192066c06210d95ac730302bc00f-1536x1024.webp 1536w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1b11192066c06210d95ac730302bc00f.webp 1860w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<div>FILE \u2013 A person uses a fan during a heat advisory in the Brooklyn borough of New York, May 19, 2026. (AP Photo\/Adam Gray, File)\n<\/div><\/div><\/li><li><div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"People watch the sunset in the heat at Zabriskie Point in Death Valley National Park.\" class=\"wp-image-14082\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/545ec276ac13e19da57553b52f7d2a17-1024x683.webp\" width=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/545ec276ac13e19da57553b52f7d2a17-1024x683.webp 1024w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/545ec276ac13e19da57553b52f7d2a17-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/545ec276ac13e19da57553b52f7d2a17-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/545ec276ac13e19da57553b52f7d2a17-1536x1024.webp 1536w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/545ec276ac13e19da57553b52f7d2a17.webp 1860w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<div>FILE \u2013 Joe Chyuwei, right, Addison Black, front center, James Black, front left, and back row from left, Helen Chyuwei, Jameson Black, Grace Chyuwei and Grayson Black watch the sunset in the heat at Zabriskie Point, Aug. 3, 2025, in Death Valley National Park, Calif. (AP Photo\/John Locher, File)\n<\/div><\/div><\/li><li><div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Drought-stressed wheat plants stand adjacent to parched ground in a field.\" class=\"wp-image-14083\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/443b423b5642e02715a1b5d70c127d82-1024x683.webp\" width=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/443b423b5642e02715a1b5d70c127d82-1024x683.webp 1024w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/443b423b5642e02715a1b5d70c127d82-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/443b423b5642e02715a1b5d70c127d82-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/443b423b5642e02715a1b5d70c127d82-1536x1024.webp 1536w, https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/443b423b5642e02715a1b5d70c127d82.webp 1860w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<div>FILE \u2013 Drought-stressed wheat plants stand adjacent to parched ground in a field near Macksville, Kan., May 16, 2026. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel, File)\n<\/div><\/div><\/li><\/div><\/div><\/ul><div><div>FILE \u2013 A person uses a fan during a heat advisory in the Brooklyn borough of New York, May 19, 2026. (AP Photo\/Adam Gray, File)\n<\/div><span>Expand<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n<h4>El Nino\u2019s impacts spawn winners and losers<\/h4>\n<p>The weather pattern\u2019s effects vary by region. El Nino often dampens \u2014 but doesn\u2019t eliminate \u2014 Atlantic hurricane season activity, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the U.S. East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger, Frazier said.<\/p>\n<p>The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists said. Other places are looking at more danger. Parts of western South America \u2014 where the first El Ninos were noticed decades ago \u2014 often get heavy rain and floods, along with an extra warm summer. India faces more intense heat waves, while drought, wildfires and heat threaten Australia.<\/p>\n<p>Northeastern Africa is likely going to get weather whiplash from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains, said Columbia University climate scientist and El Nino expert Muhammad Azhar Ehsan.<\/p>\n<p>In the U.S., El Ninos can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, but they also tend to generally benefit the U.S. agriculture industry, said Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center.<\/p> <div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Michael Ferrari, meteorologist and head of research at the investment research firm Moby, said conditions for grains and seed, especially soybeans, look favorable in 18 major growing states, but are more mixed when it comes to dairy and cattle.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=14077\">US jobless aid filings rise to 229,000 last week, remain historically low despite Iran war headwinds<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The northern Rockies and Southwest \u2014 where there\u2019s an \u201coff the charts\u201d snow drought \u2014 could get some strong summer rains, Gottschalck said. The biggest effect in the U.S. is often in the winter, when the south can get wetter and the Pacific Northwest warmer and drier.<\/p>\n<p>But overall, temperatures raised by the weather pattern can dampen American economic growth, said Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke. Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of lagging effects of this El Nino, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have pretty clear evidence that the U.S. economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal,\u201d Burke said.<\/p>\n<h4>Strong early signs<\/h4>\n<p>The weather extremes caused by an El Nino also depend on when it develops.<\/p>\n<p>Usually El Ninos form in the summer, peak in the late fall or early winter, and peter out the next spring, scientists said.<\/p>\n<p>However, Ehsan\u2019s team forecasts that this El Nino will peak a month or two earlier based on strong early signs from recent weeks. Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi said large El Ninos like these also tend to last longer.<\/p>\n<p>The early indications \u2014 including warmer water pushing toward the surface of the Pacific \u2014 have been so strong and noticeable that forecasters have all been predicting the same ultra strong El Nino, Vecchi said, adding that El Nino forecasts often are all over the place at this time of year.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists predict stronger El Ninos as the world warms from the burning of coal, oil and gas, Frazier and others said. But she said it is too early to say if this El Nino is part of that.<\/p>\n<p>Even before it officially formed, this El Nino has gotten nicknames ranging from \u201csuper\u201d to \u201cGodzilla.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInstead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared,\u201d Columbia\u2019s Ehsan said<\/p>\n<p><em>The Associated Press\u2019 climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP\u2019s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.<\/em><\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=14075\">US producer prices rose 6.5% in May on higher energy prices, largest yearly jump since November 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Meteorologists say an El Nino is likely to be a major factor in extreme and deadly weather across the planet for the next year or so.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14080,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-based-on-facts-either-observed-and-verified-directly-by-the-reporter-or-reported-and-verified-from-knowledgeable-sources","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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