{"id":14527,"date":"2026-06-12T15:01:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T15:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=14527"},"modified":"2026-06-12T15:01:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T15:01:34","slug":"analysis-irans-stranglehold-on-strait-of-hormuz-loosens-as-gulf-arab-oil-reaches-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=14527","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Iran\u2019s stranglehold on Strait of Hormuz loosens as Gulf Arab oil reaches market"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

By JON GAMBRELL and DAVID McHUGH<\/strong><\/p>\n

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) \u2014 Iran \u2018s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz may be easing \u2014 and its own oil problems now seem to be mounting.<\/p>\n

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The crucial strait at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and natural gas supplies once passed, has been effectively shut by Iran\u2019s attacks on shipping since the start of the war in February. Even with much of its navy sunk, just Iran\u2019s threat to attack made shippers and insurers hesitant to send vessels through the strait. The resulting energy crunch has fueled global inflation, including in the U.S.<\/p>\n

The situation, however, appears to be shifting. Analysts say more oil from Gulf Arab states appears to be getting out to market, with the help of the U.S. military. President Donald Trump says a \u201csecret mission\u201d to provide overwatch for ships got more than 100 million barrels of crude oil out. Meanwhile, American forces imposing a blockade have repeatedly shot at or stopped ships associated with Iran\u2019s sanctioned oil trade, affecting the country\u2019s ability to get the hard currency it needs.<\/p>\n

The flow of oil remains below the 15 million barrels a day that once came through the strait. So it won\u2019t satiate the global energy market, especially as nations draw down their reserves. which have been used to somewhat cushion the blow to world supplies.<\/p>\n

But if the flow can be sustained or ramped up, it could change the calculus of the crisis. Iran\u2019s ability to hurt the world economy with its grip on the strait has been its greatest advantage, giving it confidence it can outlast the U.S. even as the war and American blockade wreaked heavy damage on its economy.<\/p>\n

Iran increasingly is feeling the pressure. \u201cWe are currently under sanctions, and our routes have been blocked. We face a difficult test,\u201d President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a live address on state television Wednesday. \u201cGoverning the country is not an easy task under the current circumstances, given the shortages we face, the unrest we have experienced and the problems that remain.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the course of the conflict remains highly uncertain. This week saw days of intense fire between Iran, Israel and the United States. Trump on Thursday threatened to seize the oil export terminal of Kharg Island and bomb the Islamic Republic even more intensely, then suddenly pulled back and once again claimed a breakthrough in negotiations to end the war.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

A \u2018secret mission\u2019 goes public<\/h4>\n

Getting the strait open and oil flowing has been a key priority for Trump \u2014 though he has seemed at times to flail for ways to make it happen. After initially telling allied nations that the strait wasn\u2019t America\u2019s concern and to \u201d go get your own oil,\u201d Trump turned to threatening to do everything up to the destruction of \u201d a whole civilization \u201d to get tankers out through the waterway again.<\/p>\n

It appears that in recent weeks, rising confidence in U.S. military support and the growing need for supplies convinced shippers to hazard the risk of running the strait, using stealthy methods.<\/p>\n

Most likely, the ships have gone through by going \u201cdark,\u201d meaning they\u2019ve turned off their tracking systems. TankerTrackers.com, a website tracking the oil trade at sea, said it had also seen ship-to-ship transfers by Gulf Arab states this past weekend, trying to obscure the source of their crude and run through the strait without being detected by Iran. That\u2019s likely with the support of the American military.<\/p>\n

Kpler, a firm monitoring commodities markets, has tracked some 96 million barrels of non-Iranian crude oil exports getting out of the region since early May, either through the strait or via export options in the Gulf of Oman, said Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Including cargoes still loading, she said, it would likely exceed 100 million barrels, \u201cbroadly consistent with Trump\u2019s claim.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump gave the 100 million barrel figure in online posts Wednesday, in which he said more than 200 vessels had traveled through the strait thanks to \u201ca secret mission\u201d to support tankers and other ships.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThis wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 NOT Iran,\u201d Trump wrote.<\/p>\n

U.S. forces are conducting a \u201climited overwatch operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft and drone escorts to help ships through the southern part of the strait near the coast of Oman,\u201d said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief at the Lloyd\u2019s List Intelligence maritime data company.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopter that crashed this week off Oman after allegedly being hit by an Iranian drone \u201cwas probably part of that operation,\u201d he said in an online webinar Thursday.<\/p>\n

Iran has said the strait is closed after this week\u2019s exchanges which saw two days of American airstrikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan \u2014 nations that host American troops. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday insisted the strait wasn\u2019t an international waterway, despite being considered as one by the world.<\/p>\n

US blockade squeezes Iran\u2019s oil industry<\/h4>\n

As the U.S. pushes Gulf Arab states\u2019 tankers out, it continues to block Iranian ones from entering or leaving the strait. That has included shooting into vessels to stop them, like the attack Wednesday that killed three Indian sailors.<\/p>\n

Unable to get its oil to market, Iran is topping out onshore storage and using dozens of tankers off Kharg Island to store crude. Iran also apparently has been forced to slow or stop its production of oil at some wells, which experts warn can be dangerous, since older wells like those Iran has may not be able to be started again after stopping.<\/p>\n

The energy firm Wood Mackenzie believes Iran\u2019s output has fallen by 800,000 barrels a day since the American blockade began. Meanwhile, the amount stored onshore is estimated to be 69 million barrels, the highest level since Trump\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign in 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe mounting economic cost of falling output, restricted exports and tightening storage capacity is increasing pressure on Tehran to seek a diplomatic solution,\u201d Alexandre Araman of Wood Mackenzie said. \u201cFor Iran, even a temporary diplomatic breakthrough could provide immediate relief.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oil prices have remained under $100 a barrel, in part over Trump\u2019s promises of a deal and other countries using reserves and tightening their use of oil. China, long a major buyer of Iranian sanctioned oil, saw its seaborne crude oil imports drop to 6.8 million barrels a day in May, its lowest level since October 2016, according to Kpler.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s bought Trump and the global economy a bit more time, but a deal likely would need to be reached soon to avoid the energy crisis becoming dire in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Associated Press writers Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong and Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.<\/em><\/p>\n

EDITOR\u2019S NOTE \u2014 Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006. David McHugh is a veteran business writer for the AP based in Frankfurt, Germany.<\/em><\/p>\n

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