{"id":5767,"date":"2026-05-13T14:01:53","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T14:01:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=5767"},"modified":"2026-05-13T14:01:53","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T14:01:53","slug":"dont-worry-about-hantavirus-wait-should-we-worry-about-hantavirus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=5767","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t worry about hantavirus! (Wait, should we worry about hantavirus?)"},"content":{"rendered":"

A cruise ship floats around with infected passengers, is denied permission to dock, finally unloads people in hazmat suits into quarantine\u2026.<\/p>

Read more Laguna Niguel man sentenced to 25 years in prison for fentanyl deaths<\/a><\/p>\n

Do visions of the Diamond Princess, circa 2020, dance in your head? Does a vague sense of dread curdle your belly?<\/p>\n

There has been much chatter this week about whether we\u2019re seeing the tip of the next pandemic, courtesy of the Andes hantavirus that killed three and sickened many more on a different cruis ship, the MV Hondius. There\u2019s been so much chatter, in fact, that we checked in with public health expert-types to get their take.<\/p>\n

Yes, the World Health Organization has categorized\u00a0\u201cthe risk to the global population posed by this event as \u2018low.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Yes, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control said, \u201cThe risk of a pandemic caused by this outbreak and the overall risk to the American public and travelers remains extremely low.\u201d<\/p>\n

But we remember hearing much the same in January 2020. Back then, some public health officials said SARS-CoV-2 was nothing to worry about and the threat to the U.S. was \u201cjust miniscule.\u201d<\/p>\n

So we turn first to UC Irvine epidemiologist\/demographer Andrew Noymer, who studies infectious diseases, and who directly contradicted the official line, even way back then.<\/p>\n

\u201cDuck tape your underpants,\u201d Noymer posted on what was then called Twitter on Jan. 31 of that fateful year. \u201c2020 is going to be a wild ride.\u201d<\/p>

\n<\/div>\n

Infuriating many public health types, Noymer asserted that \u201c2019-novel-coronavirus *is* more frightening than SARS +certainly more than MERS b\/c spreading more countries more quickly +appears to have an appreciable case fatality rate.\u201d That kicked off 240-character brawls with other scientists who insisted that flu posed a greater risk than COVID.<\/p>\n

Noymer was right back then.\u00a0So, should we be worried now?<\/p>\n

\u201cI am an alarmist,\u201d Noymer said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd I am not alarmed.\u201d<\/p>

\n<\/div>\n

Whew!<\/h4>\n

But\u2026 really<\/em>? Even though hantavirus \u2014 which spreads via the droppings of infected rodents \u2014 is all over the Southwest, and last year it killed Betsy Arakawa, Gene Hackman\u2019s wife, in Santa Fe, N.M.?<\/p>\n

I mean, I practically live in the woods. I\u2019ve seen a mouse or two skittering across the floor. The cats offer them as presents.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe entire desert Southwest is an enzootic region for hantavirus, so people who come into contact with rodent droppings do have to keep that in mind,\u201d Noymer said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut I\u2019m referring to this recent outbreak becoming something a la COVID-19, and I\u2019m here to tell you that that\u2019s not a worry. It\u2019s on people\u2019s radar because of the Diamond Princess. But the fact is, that\u2019s where the similarities end.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, what\u2019s different?<\/p>\n

The South American strain of hantavirus isn\u2019t new or novel the way COVID was, Noymer said. We\u2019ve known it can transmit from person to person \u2014 unlike the strains we find here in the Southwest \u2014 for some time. And it\u2019s not as super highly crazy contagious as COVID was.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt just doesn\u2019t have pandemic potential.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dr. Boghuma K. Titanji, an infectious diseases physician and researcher at Emory University, would agree.<\/p>\n

The Andes strain is a single-strand RNA virus, which is less enduring than a DNA virus, she said on a MedPage webinar.<\/p>\n

Yes, influenza and COVID are also single-strand RNA viruses. But the Andes virus doesn\u2019t have the same opportunity, or pressure, to mutate as they do.<\/p>\n

People forget that there were some 2 billion COVID infections, giving the virus a tremendous opportunity to replicate and mutate. That disease also faced the pressure of vaccines, forcing it to adapt in order to survive, she said.<\/p>\n

The Andes virus, in contrast, doesn\u2019t make its rodent hosts sick. So it doesn\u2019t face much pressure to change to become more infectious.<\/p>\n

This outbreak has caused three deaths and about a dozen infections in a world of eight billion people, she said. Plus, all of those cases can be traced directly back to the source. There\u2019s no evidence of secondary or tertiary infections thus far. Hopefully, people will remain healthy in quarantine and isolation and we\u2019ll have containment six weeks from now.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s much we don\u2019t know, but we will learn \u2014 with humility, she said.<\/p>\n

Good luck<\/h4>\n

Of course, not everyone agrees.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re still leaving a lot to chance, crossing our fingers and hoping for the best,\u201d wrote Princeton University professor Zeynep Tufekci in a recent opinion piece bemoaning our complacency about the potential threat posed by hantavirus.<\/p>\n

While the World Health Organization assures everyone the Andes strain can be transmitted only through \u201cclose and prolonged contact\u201d and is thus unlikely to spread widely, a 2018 study of a \u201csuper-spreader\u201d event in Patagonia, Argentina, raises many questions.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know fairly little about the Andes strain of the Hantavirus, with an estimated 3,000 human cases over three decades. How could that assertion about it not being easy to spread be true given what we know about the 2018 superspreading event?\u201d she wrote.<\/p>\n

The senior author of that study seemed as baffled by official reassurances as she, Tufekci added. While the 2018 paper surmised that the virus spreads by \u201cprolonged or close contact,\u201d that doesn\u2019t mean strictly physical or bodily contact. The authors believe it spread via respiratory secretions.<\/p>\n

Noymer, of UC Irvine, would agree there. It appears that someone picked up the virus while bird watching and was already infected when they boarded the ship, he said. That person passed it on to others.<\/p>

Read more Ducks\u2019 Jackson LaCombe playing key roles in playoff run<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThe chain will die out,\u201d Noymer said. \u201cIt\u2019s not the tip of the iceberg the way COVID was in late 2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

The close quarters of a cruise ship almost certainly helped the spread, but details aren\u2019t completely clear. \u201cThey say \u2018close contact,\u2019 but \u2018close contact\u2019 is not a mode of spread. Is it droplets? Aerosol? Skin to skin? Sharing dining utensils? It\u2019s probably some sort of droplet or aerosol, but there\u2019s a gray boundary between those things. We just don\u2019t know yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

The World Health Organization has clarified its definition of the type of contact that could spread hantavirus to include \u201cclose proximity exposure\u201d and \u201cexposure in enclosed or shared spaces.\u201d But people may develop symptoms as long as 40 days (!) after exposure, and no one is recommending extended quarantines or extensive contact tracing to account for that.<\/p>\n

\u201cPublic health officials, from the W.H.O. to U.S. officials, would be more helpful if they stopped constantly reassuring people about the likelihood of future events they can\u2019t accurately calculate \u2014 like the odds of a pandemic occurring or how long this outbreak could last \u2014 and just told us more details about the things that matter: mode of transmission, lengthy period of incubation and the inevitable uncertainty of something for which there is little actual knowledge,\u201d Tufekci wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we\u2019re lucky, this hantavirus outbreak will peter out, or resemble the 2002 SARS outbreak: It dies out with the help of safety measures and because the virus doesn\u2019t adapt fast enough. If we are unlucky? It should be unthinkable, but here we are. And this time Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be in charge of the U.S. response.\u201d<\/p>\n

Growing sour<\/h4>\n

Noymer agrees that we are unprepared, but for different reasons.<\/p>\n

People are distrustful of public health. The uptake for preventive vaccines \u2014 \u201ceven for the ones we used to know and love, like measles\u201d \u2014 has cratered since the pandemic, he said.<\/p>\n

Data bears that out. While California boasts some of the nation\u2019s highest vaccination rates, that varies significantly among kindergartners across the state, according to recent research by the Public Policy Institute of California.<\/p>\n

In 2024\u201325, a dozen of California\u2019s 58 counties reported overall immunization rates below 90%, and 15 counties reported measles-mumps-rubella vaccination rates below 95%.<\/p>\n

The threshold for \u201cherd immunity\u201d is considered to be 95%. Below that, outbreaks are more likely.<\/p>\n

ProPublica recently reported that babies are bleeding to death as parents reject a vitamin shot given to newborns that can promote clotting.<\/p>\n

And even though the breakthrough mRNA platform that gave us the COVID vaccines can be quickly adapted to new pathogens, people are skeptical about taking them. Only a measly 10.6% of Californians have gotten the latest COVID vaccine, according to data from the California Department of Public Health.<\/p>\n

This skepticism leaves us more poorly prepared to face a pandemic than we were in 2019, Noymer said.<\/p>\n

Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, CEO of the Infectious Disease Society of America, would agree.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can see this as a sentinel event,\u201d she said in a recent media briefing about the current health event. \u201cIt\u2019s not limited to hantavirus. It\u2019s really how well the country is prepared for a disease threat. And right now, I\u2019m very sorry to say that we are not prepared.\u201d<\/p>\n

The mortality rate for hantavirus is some 30% to 40%, yet there are no treatments or vaccines for the virus, said Dr. Carlos del Rio, past president of the IDSA and professor of global health and epidemiology at Emory University.<\/p>\n

\u201cTreatment\u201d here means respiratory support with a ventilator et al in the ICU until the person beats the virus \u2014 or doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Yet public health and scientific research have been on the official chopping block.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think this is a good example of why ongoing infectious disease research needs to continue and cannot stop,\u201d he said on the briefing.<\/p>\n

Homegrown hantavirus<\/h4>\n

So the most expert experts aren\u2019t alarmed, and hopefully we\u2019ll skirt the Andes hantavirus mostly unscathed.<\/p>\n

But we always face our own Southwest hantavirus. So let\u2019s review how the CDC suggests we protect ourselves:<\/p>\n

If you encounter rodent droppings, do not vacuum or sweep them up! \u200e<\/em>That scatters ick into the air.\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

Instead, the CDC advises us to don rubber or plastic gloves and a protective N95-type face mask; soak the droppings with a bleach solution or an EPA-registered disinfectant until very wet; and wait five minutes.<\/p>\n

Then, wipe the mess up with paper towels; dispose of the paper towels in a covered garbage can that\u2019s regularly emptied; mop or sponge the area with a disinfectant; clean all hard surfaces (including floors, countertops, cabinets and drawers); wash your gloved hands with soap and water or a disinfectant; then remove the gloves and wash your hands yet again.<\/p>\n

And, for good measure, I\u2019d use some alcohol-based hand sanitizer left over from the pandemic.<\/p>

Read more Longtime Ducks fans enjoying rewards for being patient<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Columnist Teri Sforza writes: Does a vague sense of dread curdle your belly?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion-columnist","category-represents-the-opinion-of-the-author-who-is-either-a-paid-columnist-or-an-unpaid-guest-columnist"],"yoast_head":"\nDon\u2019t worry about hantavirus! 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