{"id":7843,"date":"2026-05-19T16:32:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T16:32:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=7843"},"modified":"2026-05-19T16:32:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T16:32:46","slug":"affordable-care-act-enrollment-projected-to-plunge-by-5-million-as-costs-spike-analysis-shows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=7843","title":{"rendered":"Affordable Care Act enrollment projected to plunge by 5 million as costs spike, analysis shows"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

By ALI SWENSON<\/strong><\/p>\n

NEW YORK (AP) \u2014 Nationwide enrollment in the Affordable Care Act health insurance marketplace could plummet by nearly 5 million people this year, shrinking the number of participants in the program by more than 20%, according to a new analysis from the healthcare research nonprofit KFF.<\/p>\n

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Those who remain covered are also paying more for healthcare than they used to, the group found, with the average enrollee\u2019s deductible growing by more than $1,000 and the average monthly premium payment rising by $65.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo matter how you slice it, people are paying more,\u201d said Cynthia Cox, a vice president of KFF who co-authored the report.<\/p>\n

The projected drop-off, much starker than initial federal data suggested, reveals how rising health costs, in part due to the Jan. 1 expiration of subsidies that had helped the vast majority of enrollees pay for their coverage, are forcing Americans to make tough decisions mid-year about whether to keep or go without health coverage.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an issue that could play heavily in this year\u2019s midterm elections, where voter concerns about economic stressors have taken top billing in many of the most competitive races around the nation.<\/p>\n

Enrollment is declining nationwide<\/h4>\n

ACA enrollment could fall from 22.3 million Americans in 2025 to around 17.5 million this year, according to KFF\u2019s report, which relied on federal and state data as well as findings from the actuarial firm Wakely Consulting Group.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a significant drop for the government\u2019s flagship subsidized health insurance program for working-age Americans who don\u2019t qualify for Medicaid. In recent years, ACA plans have become a popular choice for gig workers, farmers, ranchers, hairstylists and others who don\u2019t get their health coverage through an employer.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Part of the reason for such a large decline is that many Americans were auto-renewed in their plans from last year, Cox said. In many cases, those plans are now far more expensive because of expired subsidies and other market factors.<\/p>\n

When people become unable to pay the monthly fees partway through the year, they lose the coverage, Cox said.<\/p>\n

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A higher proportion of middle-income Americans dropped coverage compared to other groups, the report found. That group makes too much money to qualify for the remaining subsidies in the program that are reserved for low-income enrollees. But they don\u2019t make enough to comfortably afford their health coverage without the COVID-era enhanced subsidies that are now expired.<\/p>\n

Drops in ACA sign-ups were seen across most states, KFF found, though states that had their own exchanges retained a larger percentage of enrollees than states that relied on the federal marketplace.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

The Trump administration has maintained that federal efforts to root out fraud in the ACA program are responsible for most of this year\u2019s drop-offs. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, whose final 2026 enrollment data is not yet public, didn\u2019t immediately respond to a request for comment on KFF\u2019s report.<\/p>\n

High costs for those still in the marketplace<\/h4>\n

Last year, anticipating the expiration of the COVID-era subsidies that had boosted enrollment and offset costs for ACA users for the past four years, KFF had projected that premium payments would more than double in 2026.<\/p>\n

As it turned out, premium payments jumped by a more modest 58% on average, the new analysis found. That was partially because many people downgraded to lower-premium, higher-deductible plans that will cost them more money only if they use the coverage, KFF\u2019s report said.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are trying to hang on to their health insurance coverage any way they can, even if that means they have a deductible of $7,000,\u201d Cox said.<\/p>\n

The potential good news, she added, is that insurers seem to have predicted and already made adjustments for many of the marketplace changes that are playing out.<\/p>\n

That could mean future health costs don\u2019t have to rise so sharply.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m hopeful that this could be a one-time market correction and that we might not need to see such a high premium spike in the coming year,\u201d Cox said.<\/p>\n

Read more Trump bought stock in drugmaker as his government boosted its obesity drugs<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nationwide enrollment in the Affordable Care Act marketplace could drop by nearly 5 million people this year. 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