{"id":7950,"date":"2026-05-19T21:32:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T21:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=7950"},"modified":"2026-05-19T21:32:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T21:32:10","slug":"there-will-be-blood-why-the-race-for-californias-40th-congressional-district-is-so-volatile-and-expensive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=7950","title":{"rendered":"\u2018There will be blood\u2019: Why the race for California\u2019s 40th Congressional District is so volatile \u2014 and expensive"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

California\u2019s mid-cycle redistricting redrew the geographic boundary lines of the 40th Congressional District \u2014 but it also created one of the most expensive and volatile U.S. House of Representatives races in the 2026 midterms.<\/p>\n

Read more SEC to ready plan for trading crypto versions of stocks<\/a><\/p>\n

The negativity in the race has abounded, since redistricting pitted two incumbents against one another: Rep. Ken Calvert, a Corona Republican who has served in Congress since 1993, and Rep. Young Kim, an Anaheim Hills Republican who defeated a sitting Democrat in 2020 to first join the House.<\/p>\n

Both candidates \u2014 through their own campaigns and with outside groups and independent expenditures \u2014 have aggressively hammered one another throughout the primary with negative and personal ads.<\/p>\n

And at the center of it all is President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Calvert, 72, and Kim, 63, say they have had the president\u2019s back the most. Both accuse each other of being secretly liberal or not MAGA enough.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a tricky and volatile campaign strategy, political experts say.<\/p>\n

After redistricting, California\u2019s 40th Congressional District is one of only a handful with a majority of registered Republican voters: Nearly 208,500 (39.97%) are registered Republicans, while another 162,400 (31.14%) are registered Democrats and nearly 110,000 (21.08%) are no party preference.<\/p>\n

Trump \u2014 who has praised both Calvert and Kim at times \u2014 has not yet endorsed in this race, as of midday Tuesday.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

So it makes sense then that both Republicans, in the absence of an endorsement, would seek to align themselves the most with the GOP\u2019s de facto leader, said Marcia Godwin, an expert in politics and elections who teaches at the University of La Verne.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s striking, though, to Godwin and other election observers, is just how negative and volatile the race has become.<\/p>\n

\u201cPutting two incumbents of the same party in the same district is like putting two scorpions in a bottle,\u201d said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley. \u201cOnly one of them can survive.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd the fight for survival is going to be incredibly intense.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Getting personal<\/h4>\n

A nearly colorless image of Kim appears on the screen. A voiceover accuses the congresswoman of being a RINO \u2014 a pejorative that means someone is \u201cRepublican in name only,\u201d or not a true member of the party \u2014 and having \u201cthreatened\u201d Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ll whip his butt,\u201d Kim says in the short clip, gesturing with her left hand.<\/p>\n

That clip is from a 2020 event where Kim praised Trump\u2019s leadership style but said she would not let her daughters date or marry \u201csomebody like Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cStop liberal Young Kim before she stops Trump,\u201d a female voice in the ad states.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the latest 15-second spot dropped by the Calvert campaign on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Not to be outdone, Kim\u2019s campaign \u2014 which launched a $3.7 million ad buy last month \u2014 dropped a recent ad calling Calvert \u201csleazy,\u201d projecting headlines related to Calvert being found with a prostitute in his car in the 1990s. He was never charged with a crime, but he did admit to having sex with the person during a time when he was \u201cfeeling intensely lonely.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cScrewing us, servicing himself, sabotaging Trump. Ken Calvert, what a sleazebag,\u201d a voice in the 30-second spot says.<\/p>\n

And those are just the ads from the candidates.<\/p>\n

So far, more than $17 million has been raised by the candidates in the race, the bulk of that coming from Kim (about $7.5 million) and Calvert (about $5.1 million), according to data from OpenSecrets, the nonprofit that tracks campaign finance.<\/p>\n

Esther Kim-Varet, one of the Democrats in the contest, has raised more than $2.7 million.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t include the millions poured into the race from PACs and independent expenditures that advocate for or against candidates.<\/p>\n

As Punchbowl reported Tuesday, Americans 4 Security PAC, funded by defense contractors, has poured nearly $3 million into the race on anti-Kim ads.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s as contentious as you\u2019d expect,\u201d said Matt Lesenyie, an expert in political psychology and California politics who teaches at Cal State Long Beach.<\/p>\n

Read more FACT FOCUS: Trump falsely accuses Maryland of sending \u2018illegal\u2019 mail-in ballots to voters<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThere will be blood,\u201d Lesenyie said.<\/p>\n

The race, particularly the rush to align with Trump at all costs, Lesenyie said, underscores why so few congressional Republicans defect from the president \u2014 even on the more mundane issues.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou look at this race, and they are going back to the history books and say, \u2018This one time, you told Trump to go to sleep, and that\u2019s not MAGA enough.\u2019 You see why these guys are so stuck with him. You see, they are saving it up, they are banking for a contentious primary,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s, in a way, kind of crazy because it suggests you\u2019re not really electing me to represent you and what I know about Riverside and Orange counties, but you\u2019re electing me because I\u2019m going to defer to this New Yorker who is probably never going to come here again. My argument to you in this expensive campaign is whatever Trump wants and whoever he wants it for is good for Orange County and Riverside.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a shame, because both of those candidates know the area well, and what\u2019s good for the individual district isn\u2019t necessarily what\u2019s good for national politics or the president,\u201d Lesenyie said.<\/p>\n

Picking another lane<\/h4>\n

Despite what the airwaves may lead you to believe, six other candidates are running in the 40th Congressional District race: five Democrats and one independent.<\/p>\n

Kim-Varet, one of the Democrats, has pointed to the simultaneous race for California governor as a potential indicator of what could happen in the 40th.<\/p>\n

For several weeks, none of the several Democrats vying for California governor has been able to break through as a true frontrunner. That\u2019s led to concerns among those in the Democratic Party that two top-polling Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, could advance through the primary, locking out Democrats in the general. (In California\u2019s jungle primary system, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of political party.)<\/p>\n

In a recent social media post, Kim-Varet said she has seen polling that suggests she\u2019s close to Calvert and Kim, but \u201cevery % of fragmentation on our side makes it that much harder to land a place in the top two.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cFor CA\u2019s top-two primaries, happening on June 2 in our beautifully blue state, the math is flashing code red that Republicans could very possibly lock in these elections. No rematch. No general election recovery,\u201d said Kim-Varet.<\/p>\n

Other candidates include retired firefighter captain Joe Kerr, who unsuccessfully challenged Kim in 2024; lawyer Lisa Ramirez, who represented the Tustin father of three U.S. Marines who was detained by federal immigration authorities last year; and Nina Linh, a nonprofit executive who decided to run as an independent in the race.<\/p>\n

Attorney Francis Xavier Hoffman and retired Army officer Claude Keissieh are also running as Democrats.<\/p>\n

The thing about negative ads, experts said, is that they are effective \u2014 in getting voters to stay home.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are not designed to change a voter\u2019s opinion and move them from Candidate A to Candidate B,\u201d said Schnur. \u201cIn a primary, the goal is to get your opponent\u2019s supporters to say, \u2018What\u2019s the use? Why bother?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

And there are voters in the district who are not familiar with either Calvert or Kim, who could end up canceling each other out, said Lesenyie. There are enough malleable voters, and enough uncertainty over who Republican voters will ultimately choose, that one of the other six candidates could eek their way through, he said.<\/p>\n

In other words, a door is still open for someone to make it through the primary who might not end up winning come November.<\/p>\n

It just depends on who actually votes.\u00a0After all, it\u2019s a midterm election primary, which tends to bring out fewer voters than in presidential election years. Couple that with the negative ads, and there isn\u2019t a whole lot of optimism among political observers that many people will participate in the election.<\/p>\n

\u201cAdd up all of these factors, and the only reliable prediction to make for June 2 is an extremely low level of voter turnout,\u201d said Schnur.<\/p>\n

Read more Steve Hilton, Xavier Becerra continue to lead in new California gubernatorial candidate poll<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim fight to align themselves the most with President Trump. But with all the negativity, will they lock out the Democrats?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-based-on-facts-either-observed-and-verified-directly-by-the-reporter-or-reported-and-verified-from-knowledgeable-sources","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018There will be blood\u2019: Why the race for California\u2019s 40th Congressional District is so volatile \u2014 and expensive - Silicon Valley Moving Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=7950\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018There will be blood\u2019: Why the race for California\u2019s 40th Congressional District is so volatile \u2014 and expensive - Silicon Valley Moving Post\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Reps. 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