{"id":8143,"date":"2026-05-20T16:03:24","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T16:03:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8143"},"modified":"2026-05-20T16:03:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T16:03:24","slug":"csuf-economists-forecast-an-uncertain-economy-with-some-bright-spots","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8143","title":{"rendered":"CSUF economists forecast an uncertain economy with some bright spots"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The \u201cCalifornia Dream\u201d continues to be plagued by a persistent affordability crisis.<\/p>\n

Read more In Iran\u2019s capital, weapons demonstrations send a signal at home and abroad as threat of war remains<\/a><\/p>\n

That single sentence captures the litany of data points outlined by economist Anil Puri during Cal State Fullerton\u2019s 2026 Spring Economic Forecast conference, titled \u201cEverything, Everywhere All at Once.\u201d<\/p>\n

Puri, director of the university\u2019s Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting, and economist Mira Farka, the center\u2019s co-director, presented their forecast for the global, U.S., California and Orange County economies on April 29 at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda.<\/p>\n

The conference is an annual collaboration between Cal State Fullerton and the Orange County Business Council.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt comes from a movie, but it\u2019s so appropriate for what\u2019s happening today,\u201d Puri said of the forecast\u2019s title.<\/p>\n

In California, the theme is familiar, he said.<\/p>\n

Stalled job growth, uneven job creation, outmigration, weaker immigration and rising housing and insurance costs all point to continued population decline.<\/p>\n

The affordability squeeze is colliding with that decline and with weaker job creation, Puri said.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u201cWe lost a million people from California,\u201d Puri said. \u201cDomestic outmigration has been negative for many years now. We are sending more people out than are coming in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Housing costs remain a major driver. The average price of a home in California is about $827,000 \u2014 and $1.9 million in Orange County \u2014 compared with roughly $431,000 in Nevada, Arizona or Idaho.<\/p>\n

Insurance premiums have risen at double-digit rates over the past decade, with another 10% increase expected this year, Puri said.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo people are moving out of California to get more homes,\u201d he said. \u201cIt has been that way for many years now.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Even with health care fields adding about 11,500 jobs in 2025, Orange County was still down about 600 jobs overall, Puri said.<\/p>\n

Tariffs did less harm than feared<\/h4>\n

While tariffs have created uncertainty, Puri and Farka said the economic effect has mostly been less severe than feared because the rates announced on paper do not always match the rates actually imposed.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe reached volume highs in terms of global trade \u2026 $26 trillion in global trade just last year,\u201d Farka said. \u201cAt the end of the day, tariffs proved to be far less damaging.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Officers who defended Capitol from rioters sue to block payouts from $1.8B \u2018anti-weaponization\u2019 fund<\/a><\/p>\n

They believe the current escalation will likely soften through negotiations and exemptions.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur baseline scenario \u2026 assumes that we\u2019re going to have a couple of months of negotiations going on,\u201d Farka said.<\/p>\n

Uneven enforcement could also limit economic damage, even where tariffs remain in place, she said.<\/p>\n

Still, Farka outlined areas where tariff risk could persist:<\/p>\n

Section 301 tariffs, or \u201ccountry-specific\u201d tariffs, create higher uncertainty for companies tied to those sourcing relationships.<\/p>\n

Section 232 tariffs, which are \u201csector-specific\u201d tariffs, can spread across an entire industry regardless of country, making it difficult for firms to avoid higher costs.<\/p>\n

The administration is also considering possible new tariffs affecting pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, according to the economic report.<\/p>\n

National economy can adapt, recover<\/h4>\n

The national outlook is generally upbeat, according to the report, stemming from the U.S. economy\u2019s capacity to adapt, shift and reinvent itself more rapidly than any other major economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur view is that the U.S. economy will weather the current global supply shock stemming from the Iran conflict with fewer bruises than most,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n

Sports events give California a boost<\/h4>\n

A series of high-profile events is expected to provide a significant, though temporary, boost to Southern California and the state as a whole.<\/p>\n

Super Bowl LX at Levi\u2019s Stadium in Santa Clara generated an estimated $500 million in economic activity.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, California will host 14 matches during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with total economic impact estimated to exceed $1.1 billion.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles will host Super Bowl LXI in 2027, and the city will take center stage in 2028 as host of the Olympic and Paralympic Games, events economists project will draw 15 million spectators and a global audience of roughly 5 billion.<\/p>\n

The economists predict the enduring value of these events will come from the infrastructure improvements and international recognition they bring to the state.<\/p>\n

Read more The GOP\u2019s YOLO caucus is small but growing. That may spell trouble for Trump\u2019s congressional agenda<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anil Puri and Mira Farka presented their forecast for the global, U.S., California and Orange County economies on April 29.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-local-news"],"yoast_head":"\nCSUF economists forecast an uncertain economy with some bright spots - Silicon Valley Moving Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8143\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CSUF economists forecast an uncertain economy with some bright spots - 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