{"id":8856,"date":"2026-05-22T20:04:06","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T20:04:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8856"},"modified":"2026-05-22T20:04:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T20:04:06","slug":"trumps-cuba-strategy-echoes-his-venezuela-playbook-but-there-are-key-differences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8856","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Cuba strategy echoes his Venezuela playbook. But there are key differences"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong>By BEN FINLEY, MATTHEW LEE, FARNOUSH AMIRI and KONSTANTIN TOROPIN<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 The Trump administration\u2019s strategy against Cuba is looking a lot like the playbook for Venezuela: An oil blockade, a growing U.S. military presence, federal charges and repeated threats of intervention.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8854\">Senators from both parties push Hegseth for action on Ukraine aid<\/a><\/p>\n<p>But similar pressure campaigns do not equal similar results, experts say, even if President Donald Trump has often warned that \u201cCuba is next.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPresident Trump viewed the Venezuelan intervention as a fantastic success,\u201d said Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group and a former State Department lawyer. \u201cAnd he\u2019s sought to replicate the Venezuela model elsewhere, including in Iran. But obviously, Cuba, like Iran, is a very different country than Venezuela.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If the U.S. were to depose Cuba\u2019s leadership, there is no obvious successor who would work with the Trump administration, Finucane said. That is unlike Venezuela, where the U.S. captured leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in January and his second in command, Delcy Rodr\u00edguez, stepped in with U.S. approval and remains in power.<\/p>\n<p>Cuban officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, say \u201cthere is no Delcy in Cuba.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The number of American forces in the Caribbean Sea now is also smaller and far less foreboding than the massive military buildup off Venezuela\u2019s coast in the months ahead of Maduro\u2019s ouster, Finucane said. Plus, an indictment against a 94-year-old former Cuban leader \u2014 Ra\u00fal Castro \u2014 is less impactful than charging Venezuela\u2019s sitting president with drug trafficking and using that to justify his capture.<\/p>\n<p>Here are some of the similarities and differences between the U.S. pressure campaigns against Venezuela and Cuba:<\/p>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span><iframe allowfullscreen=\"true\" class=\"youtube-player\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/UyzWuGcNEtc?version=3&amp;rel=1&amp;showsearch=0&amp;showinfo=1&amp;iv_load_policy=1&amp;fs=1&amp;hl=en-US&amp;autohide=2&amp;wmode=transparent\" style=\"border:0;\" width=\"640\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Trump has threatened military action<\/h4>\n<p>Like other conflicts, Trump began to lay the groundwork for U.S. intervention in Venezuela \u2014 and the possibility for Cuba \u2014 with escalating threats months before military action took place.<\/p>\n<p>He has warned the leaders of the Caribbean countries to either get in line or face American might. Weeks before the audacious military operation that plucked Maduro from power, Trump stood with his top national security advisers in Florida and made what would be one of his last public threats to the autocratic leader.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf he wants to do something, if he plays tough, it\u2019ll be the last time he\u2019ll ever be able to play tough,\u201d Trump said in December. Just after Maduro was whisked to the U.S. to face trial, Trump shifted his focus to other countries in the region, namely Cuba, as being next on his list.<\/p>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cCuba is ready to fall. Cuba looks like it\u2019s ready to fall. I don\u2019t know if they\u2019re going to hold out,\u201d he told reporters on Jan. 5.<\/p>\n<p>He went on to threaten tariffs on any country that sells or supplies oil to Cuba and said the U.S. might have \u201cthe honor of taking Cuba\u201d following military operations in Venezuela and Iran.<\/p>\n<p>On Thursday, he repeated his threats, calling Cuba \u201ca failed country.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOther presidents have looked at this for 50, 60 years, doing something,\u201d Trump said. \u201cAnd, it looks like I\u2019ll be the one that does it.\u201d<\/p>\n<h4>US squeezes countries with oil embargoes<\/h4>\n<p>U.S. oil embargoes on Cuba and Venezuela have been designed to have the same impact: Putting intense pressure on ruling elites \u2014 but push diametrically opposite means to achieve those goals.<\/p>\n<p>With Venezuela, the Trump administration was targeting the country\u2019s oil exports, aiming to starve the Maduro government of revenue. After Maduro\u2019s ouster, the focus shifted to denying Venezuela the ability to export oil to certain countries \u2014 primarily Cuba, from which it did not receive cash payments \u2014 and forcing it to agree to U.S. conditions for such shipments.<\/p>\n<p>Much of Venezuela\u2019s crude is now or will soon be sent through U.S. refineries.<\/p>\n<p>With Cuba, the embargo is aimed at starving the energy-strapped country of oil imports, although the U.S. has allowed some limited shipments to arrive on the island, which recently declared it had run out of reserves. The oil embargo, an extension of the broader U.S. blockade on Cuba in place for decades, has made it far more difficult for the government to provide electricity and gasoline to its citizens.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8852\">Ex-prosecutor and other Trump critics sue to block payouts from $1.8B \u2018anti-weaponization\u2019 fund<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The measures could go too far, Finucane said, and prompt many Cubans to head 90 miles north for Florida in makeshift boats as many did in the 1990s.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPresident Trump especially cares about immigration. And if they push too hard on Cuba and destabilize the island, there\u2019s the possibility of some kind of a refugee crisis,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<h4>US brings charges against figures in power<\/h4>\n<p>The Justice Department had charged Maduro with narco-terrorism conspiracy and other counts during Trump\u2019s first term in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>The case was used to justify capturing Maduro, who is now in New York awaiting trial and has pleaded not guilty. The move changed Venezuela\u2019s relationship with the United States, which has allowed the sale of previously sanctioned Venezuelan oil to U.S. companies and on global markets, a massive shift after largely blocking dealings with Venezuela\u2019s government and its oil sector for years.<\/p>\n<p>The immediate aim of the indictment against Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes flown by Miami-based exiles is to take another step up the ladder of escalation in the Trump administration\u2019s pressure campaign, said William LeoGrande, a professor specializing in Latin American politics at American University in Washington.<\/p>\n<p>But he said that capturing Castro following charges that include murder and destruction of an airplane would not change the operations of the Cuban government.<\/p>\n<p>Castro \u201cstill has influence and the leadership seeks his opinion on major decisions, but he is not running the government on a day-to-day basis,\u201d LeoGrande said.<\/p>\n<h4>Building up a US military footprint in the region<\/h4>\n<p>In the months before Maduro was captured, the U.S. dispatched a fleet of warships to the waters near Venezuela in what became its largest military buildup in Latin America in generations.<\/p>\n<p>The nation\u2019s most advanced warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, was notably rerouted from Europe to join in the operation. Three amphibious assault ships carried an expeditionary unit of Marines as well as helicopters and Osprey aircraft.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. forces spent months attacking small boats accused of smuggling drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean \u2014 and still are carrying out those strikes \u2014 while fighter jets flew over the Gulf of Venezuela.<\/p>\n<p>The actual mission to capture Maduro involved more than 150 aircraft launched across the Western Hemisphere.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. military now has a smaller force in the Caribbean Sea, which still includes two amphibious assault ships with Marines onboard. It touted the arrival of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and accompanying warships on the same day the charges against Castro were announced this week.<\/p>\n<p>But the Nimitz is on its last ever tour, taking part in maritime exercises in the region, before being decommissioned.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey\u2019re very different situations, and it\u2019s very difficult to see similar outcomes,\u201d Finucane said. \u201cA snatch-and-grab raid against Ra\u00fal Castro or someone who\u2019s actually in a leadership position doesn\u2019t seem like it\u2019s going to have the same outcome in Cuba as in Venezuela.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/siliconvalleymovingpost.com\/?p=8850\">Map shows Garden Grove hazmat incident and evacuation around aerospace plant<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Associated Press writer Andrea Rodr\u00edguez in Havana contributed to this report.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using oil blockade and military threats, looks like the Venezuela playbook, but experts say key differences make similar results unlikely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-based-on-facts-either-observed-and-verified-directly-by-the-reporter-or-reported-and-verified-from-knowledgeable-sources","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump\u2019s Cuba strategy echoes his Venezuela playbook. 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