Less than two weeks before the June primary, one independent expenditure committee supporting San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s bid for governor has shuttered, and Netflix chairman Reed Hastings has requested a $1 million refund from another — a potential sign that financial support around his campaign is weakening.
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As the last major candidate to enter the race in late January, Mahan faced a tough path to the governorship with a name largely unknown to voters outside the Bay Area. Wealthy tech leaders and investors rallied around his campaign and results-driven message, with the likes of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, Roblox CEO David Baszucki and billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso maxing out their donations early on. Many of his backers argued that once Mahan’s name was known, his message would resonate heavily with voters.
But Mahan struggled to catch fire in the polls despite the infusion of cash second only to billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, who is financing his own campaign. On Tuesday, the California Democratic Party released its final tracking poll, showing Mahan had lost 3 percentage points since the most recent poll May 4, dropping from 7% to 4%.
The closure of the Deliver for Mahan committee Thursday morning and Hastings’ $1 million refund request from the Back to Basics committee, according to a Wednesday evening filing, are likely “nails in the coffin” for Mahan’s campaign, said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College. Hastings’ filing described the request as a “refund of contribution” for a donation reported five days earlier.
“There’s no time in a politician’s career when it’s good news that someone is asking for their money back,” she said.
The Netflix co-founder has historically been a major donor to Democratic causes, giving $7 million to a political action committee supporting former Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential run in 2024, and spending $3 million to help Gov. Gavin Newsom fight off his 2021 recall attempt. He also gave the $39,200 maximum to Mahan’s campaign.
Hastings did not respond to a request for comment through his company.
The refund request also raises questions due to an unusual pitch made by supporters of the mayor to donors earlier this year.
According to an April report in The New York Times, backers of Mahan told donors they needed $35 million to make him competitive in the state, and they needed to raise it fast. If they didn’t meet that benchmark by April 17, donors would get their money back. The donations and the subsequent refunds would be disclosed in July on campaign finance reports for the group Govern for California so they weren’t tied to a Mahan-specific committee.
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It wasn’t clear Thursday whether Hastings’ refund was connected to this effort.
Following former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal from the governor’s race in mid-April amid sexual misconduct allegations, the Back to Basics committees touted raising more than $12 million in the span of a week, prompting a $14 million statewide ad blitz over the following three weeks.
“We’re making a big bet now that as people pay attention, we’re going to be able to pick that up a lot quicker,” Back to Basics spokesperson Matt Rodriguez previously told the Bay Area News Group. “There’s no question the first two or three months were slow, but they were really slow for everybody.”
On Thursday afternoon, the Back to Basics committee reported raising $28 million this year and spending $26.6 million, leaving them with $1.4 million left in the account.
Rodriguez and the Mahan campaign did not respond to a request for comment Thursday.
But polling since then has been brutal for the San Jose mayor. Even a more favorable independent poll released last week showed Mahan in sixth place overall and fourth place among Democrats. Emerson College polling found the field was led by Democratic former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra at 19%, followed by Republican former political commentator Steve Hilton at 17.1%, Democrat Steyer at 16.6%, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 10.7% and former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter at 10.3%. Mahan followed at 7.9%. Only the two candidates with the most votes June 2, regardless of party, will advance to a runoff in the November election.
Michelson said the timing of the request, which came five days after Hastings made the donation, and the closure of one of the committees supporting Mahan is notable as it happened when ballots are in voters’ hands and early voting has begun. Recent polls suggest Democrats have started to coalesce around former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra. Steyer has also continued to see momentum in recent months.
“This could be a power play from folks wanting to make sure that individuals looking to support Mahan will think again and put their vote to someone else like Becerra or Steyer,” she said. “The timing is important because people are making their decisions.”