Life keeps interrupting USC’s dream of a College Football Playoff appearance. Or, at least, its defense does.
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The CFP remains a dream in the purest sense, nebulous and unattainable. The Week 4 loss to Oregon was the latest obstacle to the Trojans’ success – a missed opportunity for a signature win that could have snapped what was then a four-game losing streak to their West Coast rival.
USC lost the game, 41-27, and allowed 504 yards of offense without forcing a turnover or getting a sack.
Last season’s Oregon game was a CFP eliminator. This year’s matchup was a chance for the Trojans to potentially knock the Ducks out of the playoff hunt while also providing a strong indicator as to how the rest of the season might go.
We looked at data from five different statistical and analytical websites to separate dream from reality, starting with ESPN’s FPI projection that USC has just a 9.1% chance of making the CFP with Saturday’s game against Washington on the horizon.
This offense is as advertised
Riley has been labeled an offensive mastermind by the college football world, and that’s largely proven true this season.
ESPN analytics ranks the Trojans seventh in the FBS in terms of offensive efficiency, and Pro Football Focus lists them as having the fourth-best offense in the FBS.
They outperform the national average in almost every offensive category, according to Hudl IQ analytics. The offense gains 9.3 net yards per pass versus the national average of 6.9 yards and the offensive line holds a 2.8% sack percentage compared to the 5.4% average of other teams.
“Teams fall apart,” quarterback Jayden Maiava told reporters, “but this team is such a tight team that we all bought into each other, and we’re all playing for each other out there. I’ve never seen a team as tight as this team.”
Maiava sets the tone for the offense and is having the best season of his career as a potential second-round NFL draft pick. He currently leads the FBS in passing yards (1,499) and is tied for first in passing touchdowns (14).
His leadership and on-field performance, which has been influenced by an intense offseason, have the offense performing at a high enough rate to compensate for a lackluster defense. How long that style of play will be effective remains to be seen, especially with tough Big Ten competition still on the schedule.
The defense is underperforming
USC’s defense is average, at best, when compared to the rest of the FBS. It falls short of or is in line with the national average in almost every category.
The Trojans’ defensive efficiency is slotted 116th out of 138 teams in ESPN’s rankings, and Pro Football Focus holds the defense slightly higher at 97th. The tackling, in particular, is concerning and is fifth-worst in the FBS, according to PFF.
NCAA rules limit the number of live periods that a team can have during the season, but players have said that tackling drills are still an emphasis during practice and individual periods.
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“It’s a mentality,” cornerback Jontez Williams said. “When we get out there, we’re acting like it’s a person and we’re taking it to the ground.”
The defense is weak in a variety of areas: against the run, in pass coverage, and it is struggling to get to the quarterback and force turnovers. The Trojans have recorded eight sacks and three interceptions in five games.
The secondary has fallen to the bottom of the Big Ten, statistically, at 14th out of 18 teams with 12 passes defended and nine pass breakups.
Injuries have added to the defensive inconsistency. Defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart finally got back into the lineup against Oregon, only for Alex VanSumeren, another defensive tackle, to leave the game early due to injury.
Wednesday’s Big Ten availability report lists both Stewart and VanSumeren as “questionable” for Saturday’s game against Washington. Safety Alex Graham, who has been valuable at nickel this season, is also questionable.
Lincoln Riley déjà vu
The stuggles on defense in big games during Riley’s tenure at USC are similar to what Oklahoma experienced under his guidance. Riley has cycled through three different defensive coordinators in four seasons, but the results haven’t changed.
Riley is 5-15 against ranked teams at USC and 2-6 against ranked Big Ten teams in the past two seasons. That’s not a great return on investment, considering his $11.5 million annual salary.
The 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons were some of the Sooners’ lowest defensive periods, and also demonstrated a similar imbalance between offense and defense to what USC is now experiencing.
Oklahoma reached the 2018 Rose Bowl semifinal, only to fall to Georgia, 54-48, in double overtime. The Sooners gave up 527 total yards of offense and even led the Bulldogs 31-17 at one point while quarterback Baker Mayfield passed for 289 yards and two touchdowns in the game.
The next season, OU allowed 40+ points in four straight games – all wins – against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas and West Virginia in 2018. The offense performed well enough to get the Sooners a Big 12 championship game win. With an opportunity in the CFP semifinal vs. No. 1 Alabama, the Sooner lost, 45-34, allowing 528 yards.
In 2019, Oklahoma had a defensive letdown for its only regular season loss, falling to an unranked Kansas State team that collected 426 yards of offense to upset Oklahoma, 48-41. The Sooners bounced back and had another opportunity in the CFP semifinals, but No. 4 Oklahoma gave up a stunning 693 yards against eventual national champion LSU, a Joe Burrow-led unit that is considered one of the greatest offenses in college football history, in a 63-28 Peach Bowl loss.
Riley hasn’t figured out a way to deliver a big defensive breakthrough performance in a big game for USC, but should have more chances ahead against a tough schedule.
“We felt like we let one get away the other day (against Oregon),” Riley said. “I don’t think there’s a team we’re going to play this year that we’re going to walk out there and not believe we’re going to win. You’ve got to have that first, and when you have that, the breakthrough wins are coming.”
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