Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass appeared headed for a place in the November runoff Wednesday, while reality television personality Spencer Pratt emerged as a surprise contender in a race that political observers said reflected voter frustration with City Hall, affordability challenges and the lingering fallout from last January’s wildfires.
Read more CIF SoCal Regional baseball playoffs: Tuesday’s scores, second-round schedule
Semi-final results released by the Los Angeles County registrar’s office early Wednesday showed Bass leading the field with 34.78% of the vote, followed by Pratt at 30.44% and Councilmember Nithya Raman at 22.32%.
While analysts cautioned that substantial numbers of ballots remain uncounted, they said the most striking development was not Pratt’s competitiveness, but the size of his lead over Raman, whom many observers had viewed as Bass’ strongest challenger.
“Pratt very effectively channeled the anger and frustration that many Angelenos feel about their city,” veteran political analyst Dan Schnur said Wednesday. “He actually managed to out-Mamdani the DSA candidate, which is no mean feat.”
Schnur said concerns over housing affordability, homelessness, transportation and city services have been building for years, but that the Palisades and Eaton fires appeared to crystallize those frustrations in a way that benefited Pratt’s candidacy.
“Voters were certainly looking for a way to vent their anger toward City Hall, but as the campaign progressed, Pratt emerged as a recognizable way of doing that,” Schnur said.
Pratt, a reality television star with no government experience, acknowledged questions about his readiness to lead the city while speaking to reporters outside a private campaign watch party Tuesday night.
“I’m going to continue to work hard, learn everything I need to learn, build my teams,” Pratt said.
Pratt said he plans to spend the next five months making his case to voters and surrounding himself with experienced advisors as he prepares for a potential November runoff.
The Bass campaign, however, drew a very different conclusion from the early returns.
Bass campaign spokesperson Alex Stack said Wednesday the mayor’s team viewed the results as a sign of strength heading toward November.
“We’re in an extremely strong position against either Spencer or Nithya,” Stack said, while noting that additional ballots remain to be counted.
The campaign argued that dissatisfaction with campaign position does not necessarily translate into opposition to the mayor herself.
“I think the disconnect is… some people might be somewhat dissatisfied with the current state of things, but that doesn’t mean they don’t think that Mayor Bass has been doing good work,” Stack said. “ What I’m seeing from this is they want to give her a shot at another four years to continue that work.”
He pointed to recent declines in homelessness and crime, as well as efforts to expand housing production, arguing that voters recognized progress even if they wanted change to happen more quickly.
The campaign also pushed back on the notion that Pratt’s performance reflected readiness to govern the nation’s second-largest city.
“Being a reality show guy who is good at creating content online, and relying on AI videos doesn’t mean you’re ready to lead the second-largest city in the entire country,” Stack said.
Political observers, however, cautioned against drawing firm conclusions about the race for second place
Read more Orange County scores and player stats for Tuesday, June 2
At the same time, observers cautioned against drawing firm conclusions about the race for second place, noting that additional ballots remain outstanding.
Former Los Angeles County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky noted that late-arriving ballots have historically trended more Democratic and progressive than those counted first.
“Pratt would be the favorite to end up in second place,” Yaroslavsky said, “but it’s not a sure thing.”
As of the semi-final results released at 2:08 a.m. Wednesday, Raman trails Pratt by roughly 40,000 votes, a significant gap but one that could narrow if the remaining ballots follow patterns seen in previous elections, Yaroslavsky said.
“There are a lot of moving parts here, but basically, it looks like a Bass-Pratt runoff,” he said. “But I don’t think anybody would bet their firstborn child that that’s the case until they see more votes.”
Raman, meanwhile, told supporters Tuesday night that her campaign had faced opposition from what she described as powerful interests determined to preserve the city’s status quo, including corporate landlords, business interests, as well as a MAGA-backed political effort.
She argued that her campaign’s vision for a more affordable and equitable Los Angeles nevertheless resonated with voters.
“We had a beautiful vision,” Raman told supporters. “A vision of Los Angeles that’s joyful and welcoming and ambitious, and we believe that Angelenos were hungry for that vision.”
While much attention focused on Pratt’s rise, both Yaroslavsky and Schnur said Bass also outperformed expectations.
Bass entered Election Day facing persistent criticism over homelessness, city services and her handling of the wildfire crisis. Yet her share of the vote exceeded many public polls conducted before the election, experts said.
“Karen Bass’s a very resilient political figure,” Yaroslavsky said. “Don’t write her political obituary anytime soon.”
Schnur said many voters appear to have already formed opinions about Bass’ first term, meaning the mayor’s path to reelection may depend less on changing minds about her record and more on persuading voters that the alternative would be worse.
If the current standings hold, both analysts said a Bass-Pratt matchup would present a very different challenge than a runoff against Raman.
Schnur said Bass’ team is likely more comfortable facing Pratt, a registered Republican, in a heavily Democratic city than facing a progressive challenger competing for many of the same voters.
Still, both analysts said the race remains fluid until more ballots are counted in the days ahead.
The Los Angeles County registrar’s office is expected to continue releasing updated results daily as additional vote-by-mail, provision and Election Day ballots are processed.
Read more CIF SoCal Regional softball playoffs: Tuesday’s scores, second-round schedule