In an era where Southern California house hunters are cash-strapped to buy, you’d think they would be flocking to the market’s usual bargain – the condominium.
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However, my trusty spreadsheet’s peek at homebuying stats from Attom, going back to 2005, found that local condo sales across six counties have never been slower.
Yes, slower than during the Great Recession.
In the 12 monthsended in March, 41,451 Southern California condos were bought. That’s not only the slowest yearly sales pace over 22 years. It’s also down 4% for the year and 25% below the long-term average.
Now, all homebuying has been sluggish. But sales seem slightly swifter for Southern California single-family homes, a category that includes most townhomes.
Across the six counties, there were 126,702 single-family homes sold in the past year. That is the 22nd-slowest pace since 2005 and is essentially flat with March 2025. It’s also 28% below average.
Why the condo slump?
Start with the big picture. The current economy hasn’t been kind to folks with lower incomes, the primary condo buyer.
Then there’s a perception problem.
Some house hunters are wary about fickle condo boards that rule these communities. There also can be expensive condo fees.
Others worry about shared expenses and painful surprises when major repairs require a large special assessment for all owners in a complex.
Also, buying a condo has become complicated. Getting a home loan can be tricky, as many condo associations have financial challenges that scare off lenders.
Purchasing condo insurance can be difficult, too.
Price gap
The condo slump comes when they remain the market’s relative bargain.
Southern California’s median sales price for condos was $670,000 in March. That’s 23% below the $870,000 price of single-family homes.
That gap has grown. Since 2005, condos have averaged a 17% discount to single-family homes.
Condo pricing looks weaker, too.
March’s Southern California median was off 3% year-over-year and sits 4% below the February 2025 peak of $699,005.
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For single-family homes, prices are off just 1% over the past year and 2% below the June 2025 peak of $885,000.
Or take a longer-term view.
Southern California condo prices are up only 2% since the Federal Reserve ended its cheap-money policy in March 2022. The median single-family home price is up 10% over four years.
Payment pain
When you look at an estimate of a typical buyer’s monthly house payment, you see a condo’s financial appeal again.
Consider a condo purchase at the March median price, with a mortgage at the three-month average rate of 6.1%, assuming a 20% down payment.
The estimated $3,252 monthly payment was off 10% year-over-year and 14% below the peak of $3,785 reached in November 2023. Still, this house hunter’s burden has risen 33% over four years as Fed action nudged mortgage rates higher.
That’s still a big discount to the market’s alternative.
A Southern California single-family house payment was $4,222 in March, down 8% from a year earlier and 9% below the peak of $4,631 reached in May 2024. And this burden jumped 43% in four years.
Counting counties
Here is a look at the condo sales slump in the six counties, ranked by condo sales in the last 12 months:
– Los Angeles: 15,460 sold, the second-lowest total since 2005. Sales are off 5% vs. March 2025 and run 29% below the 22-year average.
– San Diego: 9,125 sold, No. 30 lowest, up 1% in a year but 27% below average.
– Orange: 7,280 sold, No. 8 lowest, off 6% in a year and 26% below average.
– Riverside: 4,920 sold, No. 87 lowest, off 2% in a year and 5% below average.
– San Bernardino: 3,006 sold, No. 25 lowest, off 18% in a year and 19% below average.
– Ventura: 1,660 sold, No. 32 lowest, up 2% in a year but 23% below average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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