Orange County has a new peak housing price.
My trusty spreadsheet’s review of Attom’s March homebuying report showed that the $1.22 million median was up 2% year over year and topped the old record of $1.21 million set in June 2025. That month, three of the six Southern California counties had all-time high prices. It was the last time records were broken before this new peak.
Read more AI-powered cameras will be watching 10 Freeway toll lanes in San Bernardino County
Yes, recent home pricing strength is a bit of a head-scratcher in an era of lofty mortgage rates and a shaky economy. Somehow, Orange County’s median is up 21% since the Federal Reserve ended its cheap-money policies four years ago.
In fact, Orange County’s pricing seems stronger than elsewhere in the state.
The $810,000 median across Southern California’s six-county region was down 1% over the past year and 3% below its peak. It’s up only 8% over the past four years.
The statewide March median of $736,000 was down 1% over the past year, 2% below its peak, and up just 5% over four years.
Yet Orange County’s price strength is on par with the nation. The U.S. median of $372,274 was up 4% over the past year, 1% below its peak, and up 15% over the past four years.
Could the price record be tied to a shortage of choices for house hunters?
The number of homes for sale did jump 32% in the year ending in March, according to Realtor.com stats. But the inventory remains 38% below 2019 levels, the pre-pandemic days considered the industry norm.
Not affordable
Just ponder the Orange County house payment a typical March buyer got – $5,921, assuming they bought the median-priced residence at the three-month average mortgage rate of 6.1% with a 20% down payment.
And let’s say you wanted that payment to be only 25% of your household income. You better be making at least $284,000 annually.
Read more Kyle Busch was more than a villain and the greatest NASCAR driver of his generation
Note, this buyer’s burden doesn’t include taxes, insurance, association fees and maintenance expenses.
And you’ll need cash for the $244,000 down payment.
The modest good news is that, thanks to lower mortgage rates in March, this estimated payment was 7% below the peak of $6,380 reached in June 2024.
However, the payment yardstick has risen 57% over the past four years, while Orange County’s average weekly wage rose only 13%, according to one federal pay index.
However, the Orange County job market is wobbly, down 1,700 jobs in the past two years after adding workers at a 20,000-a-year pace during the previous 10 years.
Not selling
But let’s be honest. Not many people can afford Orange County pricing.
Consider sales counts. The 2,154 completed transactions in March represented the fourth-slowest buying pace for March since 2005.
Yes, sales were up 1% year over year. But they’re also 25% below the 22-year average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
Read more Wall Street up modestly in premarket trading, oil prices climb on uncertainty over the Iran war
- Try Jonathan Lansner’s Substack collection of economic trends. CLICK HERE!