No. 19 USC (5-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) at Penn State (3-2, 0-2)
When: 4:30 p.m. PT Saturday
Where: Beaver Stadium, State College, Pennsylvania
TV/Radio: NBC (Ch. 4)/710 AM
Line: Penn State by 1.5 points
NOTABLE INJURIES
USC: OUT: WR Corey Simms (knee), S Kendarius Reddick (undisclosed), LB Taylor “Taybo” Johnson (undisclosed), LB Roman Marchetti (undisclosed), OL Kilian O’Connor (knee); QUESTIONABLE: DT Jahkeem Stewart (foot), WR Trent Mosley (knee), WR Terrell Anderson (undisclosed), TE Mark Bowman (undisclosed), OL Hayden Treter (undisclosed), DT Jide Abasiri (leg).
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Penn State: WR Koby Howard (undisclosed), DE LaVar Arrington II (knee), CB Joshua Johnson (undisclosed), DE Max Granville (undisclosed), LB Cam Smith (undisclosed), CB Christian Askew (undisclosed), CB Tyler Armstead (undisclosed), DE Mason Robinson (undisclosed), DE Dayshaun Burnett (undisclosed), OL Will Thompkins (undisclosed), TE Cooper Alexander (undisclosed), K Christiano Rosa (undisclosed); QUESTIONABLE: LB Alex Tatsch (undisclosed), DT Armstrong Nnodim (undisclosed).
What’s at stake? USC already has one loss on its schedule; one more could put them at risk for elimination from the College Football Playoff. The Trojans have also yet to put together a complete conference game in which the offense and defense equally contribute. The defense took a step forward against Washington last week, but the offense wasn’t up to its usual standard. Penn State is on a two-game losing streak, and another loss would confirm that head coach Matt Campbell’s rebuild is going much slower than expected.
Who’s better? It’s not so cut-and-dried. Both of these teams are searching for an identity halfway through the season – Penn State more so than USC. The Trojans may have more talent healthy, considering 12 Penn State players will miss this game due to injury, but the Nittany Lions do have a notoriously challenging White Out environment on their side.
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Matchup to watch: USC’s passing game vs. Penn State’s passing defense. The Trojans have the third-best passing offense in the conference at 311.7 yards per game and gain an average of 9.1 yards per attempt. The Nittany Lions’ defense allows a conference-low 119.6 per game and just 4.7 yards per attempt.
USC wins if: King Miller and Waymond Jordan have made for an effective run game, but neither has been a home-run hitter this season. Penn State has one of the worst run defenses in the Big Ten, ranking 16th in the 18-team conference at 173.2 yards per game. The Trojans can gain a serious edge if they’re able to execute chunk plays on the ground.
Prediction: USC 27, Penn State 24. The Trojans feed off the crowd energy and stay in the hunt for the CFP.